World Oil Outlook - Opec

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72 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Figure 1.35 Annual upstream investment requirements Figure for 1.35 capacity additions in the Reference Case, 2012–2035 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 per capita. 15 $(2011) billion CO 2 emissions 5 0 OPEC Eurasia Developing countries OECD Figure 1.42-not used OPEC Eurasia Developing countries OECD 2012–2020 2020–2035 The Reference billion tonnesCase sees fossil fuels contributing the largest share to the energy mix over the 30 entire projection period, with coal eventually becoming the fuel type with the highest share. These developments can be interpreted in terms of CO2 emissions: in 2011, non-Annex I emissions exceeded those of the Annex I group for the 25 Non-Annex I first time (Figure 1.36). By the end of the projection period, non-Annex I emissions will account for 67% of the global total. It should be noted, however, that like en- 20 ergy use, the per capita situation for CO2 emissions paints a different picture: by 2035, Annex I countries emit double the CO2 emissions of non-Annex I countries Annex I Moreover, 10 cumulative emissions from Annex I countries will continue to be far higher than from non-Annex I countries: by 2035, they will still represent 61% of cumulative CO2 emissions since 1900 (Figure 1.37). 9 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emissions in the Reference Case Figure 1.43-not used 12 3 10 2.5 8 2 6 1.5 4 1 2 0.5 0 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 tonnes Annex I 1970 OPEC Eurasia Developing Countries Non- Annex I OECD Decline box -- figure 2 Annex I Non- Annex I Figure 1.37 Cumulative CO2 emissions from 1900, 1960–2035 Figure 1.37 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 mb/d billion tonnes 0 Annex I OPEC Eurasia Developing Countries 2010 OECD 2035 2000–2011 2011–2035 Annex I Non-Annex I Non- Annex I 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 73 Chapter 1
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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