World Oil Outlook - Opec

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78 870 million cars across the globe, an increase of over 22 million compared to 2008. More than two-thirds of cars are in OECD countries. Over the past few decades, however, the percentage shares between developed and developing countries have shifted rapidly. Figure 2.5 shows how the percentage of cars in developing countries went from under 6% in 1970 to more than 24% in 2009. It is expected that this trend will continue. By 2035, the developing country share will have more than doubled, reaching 52% of all passenger cars globally. Nowhere is the recent car ownership increase as dramatic as in China. As can be viewed in Figure 2.6, the rise in the number of cars over the past decade has been unique: from 2000-2009, the number of cars on Chinese roads expanded by 37 million on the back of strong increases in income levels and the rapid economic development. The rise was close to three times greater than in Russia, which saw the next largest increase. However, despite this rapid rise in car ownership in developing countries, there remain significantly lower levels of car ownership per capita compared to the developed world. Car ownership in OECD countries in 2009 averaged 478 per 1,000 people, while in developing countries it was just 40 per 1,000. Table 2.1 and Figure 2.7 document this difference in car ownership per capita. For example, while levels of around one car per two people are typical in OECD countries, the level is as low as just one car per 1,000 in parts of Africa and Asia. Car ownership saturation is already visible in the developed world: perhaps the most notable example is the US. Car ownership increased rapidly from below 500 per 1,000 people in the early 1970s to over 700 per 1,000 at the start of this century, although it should be noted that car ownership ratios in 2009 are the same as 2002. Of course, saturation levels vary between countries, due to alternative demographic structures, geographical and cultural differences, or even variances in income distribution. What is clear, however, is that saturation is of limited relevance for the developing world, especially for countries at low levels of car ownership. As emphasized in previous WOOs, the main constraints limiting the growth of car ownership in the developing world revolve around such areas as congestion, infrastructure, the rates of expansion in automobile manufacturing, steel production capacities and local pollution concerns. Reference Case projections for passenger car ownership are shown in Table 2.2. The number of passenger cars double by 2035, compared to 2009 levels,
Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger car ownership in 2009 Population Cars Cars millions millions per 1,000 OECD America 479.1 263.5 549.9 Canada 33.6 14.2 422.2 Chile 17.0 2.0 118.3 Mexico 109.6 20.5 187.2 USA 314.7 224.4 713.2 OECD Europe 548.1 240.2 438.2 Austria 8.4 4.4 521.5 Belgium 10.7 5.2 488.9 France 62.3 31.1 498.1 Germany 82.2 41.7 507.9 Greece 11.2 5.1 459.9 Hungary 10.0 3.0 301.7 Italy 59.9 35.9 599.2 Luxembourg 0.5 0.3 676.6 Netherlands 16.6 7.9 474.3 Poland 38.1 16.5 433.3 Portugal 10.7 5.6 520.2 Spain 44.9 22.0 489.6 Turkey 74.8 7.1 94.8 UK 61.6 28.5 462.2 OECD Asia Oceania 208.2 87.5 420.3 Australia 21.3 12.0 564.7 Japan 127.2 57.9 455.4 New Zealand 4.3 2.6 609.6 South Korea 48.3 13.0 269.5 OECD 1,235.4 591.2 478.5 Latin America 409.4 60.1 146.7 Argentina 40.3 11.6 287.0 Brazil 193.7 33.9 175.1 Colombia 45.7 2.4 52.5 Peru 29.2 1.2 41.2 Uruguay 3.4 0.6 178.6 Middle East & Africa 835.8 21.9 25.6 Egypt 83.0 2.7 33.1 Ethiopia 82.8 0.1 0.9 Ghana 23.8 0.4 18.4 Jordan 6.3 0.7 106.5 Kenya 39.8 0.5 12.6 Morocco 32.0 1.8 57.0 79 Chapter 2
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89: 2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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