World Oil Outlook - Opec

More documents

Recommendations

Info

180 is unclear, it is believed that additional capacity in the range of 200,000–300,000 b/d will be constructed by 2016. In addition, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are both considering investments in their refining industries to modernize (or possibly replace) aging refineries in the Caspian region. However, insufficient progress on proposed projects has been observed to consider them for a 2016 start-up. It is also worth mentioning that some incremental capacity in the region will likely be offset by permanent shut downs at existing plants, especially in the Ukraine where the Odessa refinery (following the reversal of the Odessa-Brody pipeline), the Kherson refinery and the Lisichansk refinery are currently shut. It is unlikely that all of them will be restarted at full capacity. US & Canada The refining sector in the US & Canada is experiencing a period characterized by a delicate balance between capacity rationalization, primarily in the East and West Coasts, and capacity growth and re-positioning for future feedstocks in the Midwest and US Gulf. The refinery shutdowns experienced so far, whether temporary or permanent, are already in the range of 1 mb/d. (A detailed discussion of this issue is included later in this Chapter.) In contrast to the closures, medium-term capacity additions from existing projects are seen to reach 0.5 mb/d and are dominated by developments in the US refining sector. These additions will be achieved almost exclusively through the expansion of existing facilities, despite the fact that several proposals exist for new refineries in both the US and Canada. More than half of the incremental capacity will come from the Motiva project in Port Arthur, Texas. This will add 325,000 b/d of distillation capacity. The expanded refinery was inaugurated on 31 May 2012 as the largest facility in the US with a total capacity of 600,000 b/d. However, only days afterward, during a temporary shutdown for maintenance, a leakage of caustic into the distillation unit caused damage, which will take months to repair. Therefore, it is assumed the expanded refinery will be effectively operational only in 2013. The rest of the capacity additions will be achieved from smaller projects including expansion of the Billings, Montana, refinery by ConocoPhillips; BP’s project in Whiting, Indiana; Marathon’s refinery in Detroit, Michigan; Harvest Energy Trust’s refinery in Come By Chance, Newfoundland; and the Consumers Co-operative Refinery Limited’s expansion of the Regina refinery in Saskatchewan, among others. Moreover, many of the US projects, especially in the Midwest, are geared to configuring refineries to receive increasing amounts of Canadian oil sands, thus switching feedstock from light sweet or sour crude toward heavier grades.
Europe For the next few years, refining in Europe will not be about expansion, but rationalization. Europe’s refining industry suffers from the problem of overcapacity and, therefore, investment in crude distillation capacity is limited to the single on-going expansion of Galp Energia’s refinery in Porto, Portugal. Besides this, there are several upgrading projects – mainly in Southern and Eastern Europe – that are primarily geared to increase diesel production by adding hydro-cracking units, as well as hydrotreating projects, linked to meeting tight product quality specifications on sulphur content. In contrast to these minor project additions (compared to other regions), there are a number of refineries, mainly in Western Europe, that are either for sale, being converted to storage terminals or face closure. (Box 6.1). Africa Africa is the region where prospects for the refining industry are most difficult to assess. Certainly there is a need for more refining capacity, especially in highly populated countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia, all of which depend heavily on product imports. In addition, the region’s oil demand is growing and domestic crude oil is available in most of these countries, none of which is short of refining plans. If all announced projects on the continent were counted, they would yield more than 7 mb/d of additional distillation capacity. Nonetheless, there are not many projects that have a real chance for implementation within the next five-year horizon. Currently, the largest project under construction in Africa is the Lobito refinery in Angola, which was originally designed for a capacity of 200,000 b/d. The construction of a new refinery has also started in Biskra, Algeria, after the country launched an extensive programme to increase its refining capacity. As part of the programme, bottlenecking projects are underway in two Algerian refineries, in Skikda and Algiers. Nigeria is seeking partnership with Chinese investors to rehabilitate its refineries and to construct new grassroots plants. The initial plan called for three new refineries with a combined capacity of 750,000 b/d. However, as of the completion date of this WOO, no final decision has yet been made regarding either capacity or timing. Some progress has been achieved regarding the 80,000 b/d refinery to be built by the Egypt Refining Company (ERC) on the outskirts of Cairo, Egypt. In June of this year, the ERC announced it had reached an agreement with investors led by Citadel Capital and Qatar Petroleum to secure financing for the project, set to be operational in 2016. Similarly, PetroSA and Sinopec have agreed to build a world scale refinery in South Africa, the details of which will be determined by a feasibility study. However, 181 Chapter 6
Page 3 and 4:
World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 5 and 6:
OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
Page 7 and 8:
Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10:
Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12:
Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14:
Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17:
Foreword
Page 18 and 19:
2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21:
4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23:
Executive summary
Page 24 and 25:
e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27:
10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29:
12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31:
14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33:
16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35:
6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37:
20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39:
Section One
Page 41 and 42:
Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44:
Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46:
of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48:
Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50:
Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52:
Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54:
which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56:
India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58:
Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60:
By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62:
imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64:
Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66:
Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68:
to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70:
Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72:
• The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74:
• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76:
Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78:
Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80:
Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82:
Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84:
The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86:
Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88:
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89:
2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93:
76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95:
78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97:
80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99:
82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101:
84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103:
86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105:
88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107:
90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109:
92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111:
94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113:
96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115:
98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117:
100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119:
102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121:
104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123:
106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125:
108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127:
110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129:
112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131:
114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133:
116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135:
118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137:
120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139:
122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141:
124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143:
126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145:
128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
Page 207 and 208: -1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
Page 215 and 216: costly and have shorter lead times.
Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
Page 233 and 234: 0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
Page 235 and 236: 5 of the refining base and demand,
Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248:
cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250:
The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252:
Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 253 and 254:
20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256:
Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258:
Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260:
Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262:
Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264:
conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266:
Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268:
Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269:
Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273:
256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275:
Annex B
Page 277 and 278:
OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280:
Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282:
Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283:
World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287:
270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289:
272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291:
Annex D
Page 292 and 293:
276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297:
280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298:
Organization of the Petroleum Expor
show all

World Oil Outlook - Opec

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?