World Oil Outlook - Opec

48
Figure 1.9
Natural gas: proven reserves at end 2011 trillion cubic metres
North America
10.2
Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2012 edition.
7.6
S. & Central
America
14.7
Africa
OECD Europe
4.8
79.6
62.9
Middle East
Eurasia
Asia Pacific
16.4
for three-quarters of global reserves (Figure 1.10). The abundance of coal is refl ected
in the fact that the R/P ratio currently stands at close to 120 years, although this ratio
has been steadily falling, down from 200 years just a decade ago. At this rate of decline,
the ratio could fall to under 40 years by the end of the projection period.
The future prospects for coal use will be related to the extent to which costs are
attached to carbon emissions, as well as the competition from other sources of electricity
generation, primarily gas and nuclear. The contribution of carbon capture and
storage (CCS) to climate change mitigation measures will play an important role in
determining the sustainability of coal use in a more carbon-constrained world.
The current use of nuclear energy is dominated by OECD America, OECD Europe
and Asia (Figure 1.11). The accident at Fukushima continues to reverberate on
Japan’s energy scene and, indeed, elsewhere. The Fukushima units directly affected by
the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 have, of course, been permanently closed.
But on top of this, the accident eventually resulted in the closing of many other nuclear
plants. Following a policy review on nuclear power, all remaining Japanese plants were
shut down, so that by May 2012 Japan was without electricity from nuclear power for
the fi rst time in over four decades. There is considerable uncertainty about the potential
for restarting these facilities, but public opinion is currently strongly against this.