World Oil Outlook - Opec

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may not necessarily mean low investment requirements in the region, since part of the
outdated facilities will require replacements or substantial investments to modernize,
which could also lead to more capacity being added than indicated.
Despite projected demand increases for refined products in Africa of 1.8 mb/d between
2011 and 2035, current firm construction in the region is modest – 0.3 mb/d by
2016 – and total expansion by 2035 is projected to be 0.9 mb/d, roughly only half of
the anticipated demand increase. Rising utilizations also contribute to meeting demand
growth, but product imports are projected to remain a major factor in the region’s
total product supply. Africa has the benefit of growing domestic/regional crude oil
production, which is mainly of good quality, for refinery feedstock. Against this, many
of the refineries in the region face challenges of being small scale, relatively old, low
in complexity, low in energy efficiency and historically poor in terms of utilizations.
In addition, there is intense and growing competition to supply product imports into
Africa from Europe, the Middle East, India and the US. These factors lead to an outlook
wherein regional refinery expansions struggle to compete with product imports.
Conversion and desulphurization capacity additions
Sufficient distillation capacity is a necessary pre-condition for the adequate functioning
of the refining sector. Supporting conversion and product quality related capacity
play vital roles in processing raw crude fractions into increasingly advanced finished
products – and they deliver most of a refinery’s ‘value added’. The importance of these
secondary processes has been increasing with a general trend toward lighter products
and more stringent quality specifications. Essentially all major new refinery projects
comprise complex facilities with high levels of upgrading, desulphurization and related
secondary processing. It means they have the ability to produce high yields of
light clean products which, almost invariably, can be produced to the most advanced
specifications (such as Euro V standard).
In addition, many new refineries are being designed with the ability to process
heavy, low quality, and often high acid number (high TAN) crudes, as well as better
quality grades and/or to produce petrochemical feedstocks such as propylene and aromatics.
Smaller projects in existing refineries are generally directed toward the same
aims. Together, these factors are leading to high levels of secondary processing capacity
additions and associated progressive increases in the proportions of secondary capacity
per barrel of distillation.
Results and projections for secondary processing to 2035 are presented in
Table 7.3 and Figures 7.4–7.7. In respect to conversion capacity, these projections
emphasize a sustained need for incremental hydro-cracking, which constitutes almost