World Oil Outlook - Opec

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216 Figure 7.4 Global capacity requirements by process type, 2011–2035 Figure 7.7 25 20 15 10 r 0 5 0 mb/d Additional requirements to 2035 Additional requirements to 2016 Projects to 2016 Crude distillation Conversion Octane units Desulphurization before steadily recovering thereafter in line with continuing declines in residual fuel demand (inland and marine bunkers) and Figure a global 7.9 crude slate that becomes gradually heavier. Required additions from 2016 to 2035 are projected to be 0.6 mb/d for a total of 2.1 mb/d mb/d in new capacity needed by 2035. However, this is small relative to the 7.7 mb/d 6 of projected total hydro-cracking additions for the same period. Additional requirements 2016–2035 Additional requirements up to 2016 Existing projects The outlook for catalytic cracking is similar. Demand for FCC gasoline is adversely impacted by both declining gasoline demand growth and rising ethanol supply in the Atlantic 4 Basin. The projections allow for an increased role for the FCC unit in producing propylene, which is a high growth product, and also for a shift to operating modes that yield more distillates. Even so, estimated increases beyond current projects are seen as minor until after 2015 and then are spread across non-OECD regions where there is gasoline demand growth – Latin America, Middle East and Asia. Total 2 additions to 2035 are seen at 1.8 mb/d, two-thirds of which comprise firm projects that are expected to be onstream by 2015. Unlike hydro-cracking units whose utilizations will likely be consistently high – 90% in 2015, then in the high 90% range thereafter – and coking units whose US & Latin Africa Europe FSU Middle China Other utilizations are Canada projected America to suffer and then recover, those East for FCC units Asiaare forecast to gradually decline from around 70% globally in 2015 to around 60% by 2030/2035. This projection ties in with the corresponding modelling results that
0 US & Canada Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East indicate continuing weak margins for gasoline; therefore it is the refineries that emphasize gasoline production (rather than distillates) that are most vulnerable to closure. A further implication of the projections is that hydro-cracking will partially displace catalytic cracking over time Figure as the primary 7.6 means to upgrade vacuum gasoil feedstocks. Sulphur % (wt) Moreover, it is worth mentioning that total conversion additions to 2015 are 4.7 mb/d, 1.6 a level approaching 80% of total crude unit additions. In the entire forecast Non-OPEC period to 2035, total conversion additions of 11.6 mb/d represent 85% of distillation OPEC capacity additions. <strong>World</strong> This sustained high ratio reflects the need to increase the production of 1.4light products for every barrel of crude processed, as well as a continuing need to build hydro-cracking, at times effectively displacing FCC units, in order to produce incremental distillate. 1.2 On a regional basis, Asia-Pacific will dominate conversion capacity requirements, attracting more than 45% (over 5 mb/d) of total future additions in the pe- 1.0 riod to 2035 (Figure 7.5). Nearly half of this will be needed in China alone. In Latin America, a significant increase of 1.5 mb/d should also take place in the period to 2035 as demand for light products in the region expands. The same is expected for 0.8 the supply of heavy crudes. Similar levels of conversion additions are projected for the Figure 7.5 Conversion capacity requirements Figure by region, 7.82011–2035 4 3 2 1 0 mb/d China Other Asia 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Additional requirements Existing projects US & Canada Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East China Other Asia 217 31.0 25 20 15 10 5 0 Chapter 7 6 4 2 0 m m
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
Page 277 and 278: OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280: Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282: Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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