World Oil Outlook - Opec

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164 0 Figure 5.11 Figure 5.11 <strong>Outlook</strong> for oil demand by product, US & Canada, 2010–2035 25 20 15 10 5 0 mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Other products** Residual fuel* Gasoil/Diesel Jet/Kerosene Gasoline Naphtha Ethane/LPG are significant uncertainties in this outlook for diesel demand in the US & Canada. This is related to shale gas developments in the region (Box 3.1). Naphtha represents only a small portion of product demand in the US & Canada, since much of the ethylene/propylene capacity in the region is based on ethane/LPG feedstock and other olefin sources – from refinery catalytic cracking – and less than 20% of ethylene cracker capacity uses naphtha as a feedstock. Therefore, the recent comeback in petrochemical activity in the region is not expected to affect naphtha demand, which is projected to move in a relatively narrow range over the forecast period. It is worth mentioning, however, that this stable outlook for naphtha demand represents an upward revision from last year’s report, which saw this product declining. What is changing in the US is the outlook for petrochemical expansions fed primarily by ethane from the growing supplies of Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) associated with shale gas. Ten years on from a severe downturn for petrochemicals in 2002–2003, several companies are expanding. Chevron Chemical, Dow Chemical,
Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastics have all committed to build new ethane-fed ethylene crackers and associated units, and in June 2012, ExxonMobil stated it would build a new ethane cracker in Texas. Four other companies are reported to be planning restarts and/or expansions at existing facilities, and others are believed to be evaluating options. Reportedly, the new plants plus the expansions should increase US ethylene cracking capacity by around 30% by 2017. 5 Other developments are also taking place which use propane as feedstock. In terms of fuel oil, a significant contraction in demand is expected. Fuel oil will almost disappear from the region’s demand; only 0.2 mb/d of fuel oil demand is projected for the US & Canada by 2035. Product quality specifications In the past 30 years or so, significant investment has been made to comply with tightening refined product quality specifications. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, regulators focused on lead content in gasoline. After a gradual shift to unleaded gasoline – the process is still ongoing globally – the focus turned to sulphur content in the mid-1990s, especially in the EU, Japan, Canada and the US. This shift combined with the growing importance of diesel oil and gasoil, especially in road transportation, resulted in the tightening of quality requirements for these products too. Over the past decade, many developed regions and countries, including the EU, the US, Canada and Japan, have successfully completed a transition to Ultra Low Sulphur (ULS) fuels. The follow-up steps to improving gasoline quality are focused on the reduction of benzene and aromatics content, together with increasing the octane number. And for diesel, cetane improvement and a reduction in polyaromatics are now starting to be addressed. In addition to limits on exhaust emissions of SOx, NOx and particulates, the US and Europe are moving towards reducing greenhouse gases, specifically CO 2. Figures 5.12 and 5.13 show the maximum legislatively permitted sulphur content worldwide in gasoline and on-road diesel fuel respectively as of September 2012. However, it is important to emphasize that actual sulphur content levels for products available in specific countries can (and often do) differ from those permitted by regulators. Since 2010, the US has limited sulphur content in gasoline to a 30 parts per million (ppm) maximum standard for all refiners, although California has its own stricter specifications set at a 15 ppm maximum. Canada implemented a 30 ppm sulphur limit in 2005. Since January 2009, the EU has required gasoline containing 10 ppm maximum sulphur content. Before that, as of 2005, EU Member States 165 Chapter 5
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
Page 207 and 208: -1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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