World Oil Outlook - Opec

into liquid form below its boiling point of -162°C. Compared to CNG, LNG
thermostatic fuel tanks are compact, but still more than twice the size of diesel
tanks and relatively expensive due to the utilization of special materials and advanced
technology. Nevertheless, in the US, LNG has emerged as an attractive option
for commercial long-haul trucks, where it is important to carry large amounts
of fuel and where payload requirement and the economies of scale for a big tank
plays in favour of LNG.
Despite all the benefits, the biggest obstacle and key question prior to adopting
CNG or LNG as a common road transport fuel, especially in the US, will remain
the availability of a widespread network of natural gas stations. In September 2012,
there were 1,166 natural gas stations in the US, less than 1% of the total number;
about half of them are open to the public and only 59 outlets offer LNG.
Developing a viable natural gas logistics and retail sector is very capital intensive,
and without a solid customer base does not appeal as an attractive business model.
The existing US tax credit for natural gas fuelling infrastructure expired at the end
of 2011, with limited success. A new legislation is proposed, but its outcome at this
point remains unclear.
Moves to develop more public LNG stations strategically located at major interstate
corridors across the US are underway, or have been announced. 15 Together with
tax incentives, this could encourage a broader natural gas technology adoption for
the commercial heavy-duty trucking sector, and in the longer term, for CNG light
trucks and cars.
However, such developments will take considerable time. It will be an evolutionary
process and for natural gas to become a major fuel, the road to success will be long.
Road transportation demand projections
Reference Case projections for road transportation oil demand levels and growth
rates are shown in Tables 2.5 and 2.6. World demand increases by slightly more than
9 mboe/d over the period 2009–2035. OECD road transportation demand falls
steadily from 2010 onwards as the decline in oil use per vehicle, from efficiency gains,
the rising importance of alternative fuels, and a variety of other factors also highlighted
earlier in this Chapter, combine to more than compensate for the growth in
the number of vehicles.
89
Chapter
2