World Oil Outlook - Opec

Figure 2
Exports from China to the European Union, year-on-year growth
80
60
40
20
0
–20
–40
Ja
%
O
Ja
O
Ja
O
Ja
O
Ja
O
Ja
O
Ja
O
Ja
O
J
O
Ja
January 2003
April 2003
July 2003
October 2003
January 2004
April 2004
July 2004
October 2004
January 2005
April 2005
July 2005
October 2005
January 2006
April 2006
July 2006
October 2006
January 2007
April 2007
July 2007
October 2007
Janaury 2008
April 2008
July 2008
October 2008
January 2009
April 2009
July 2009
October 2009
January 2010
April 2010
July 2010
October 2010
January 2011
April 2011
July 2011
October 2011
January 2012
April 2012
July 2012
Source: Haver Analytics.
important trading partner to many developing and emerging market economies,
such as China, although exports from China to Europe fell overall in the first half
of 2012 (Figure 2).
The Euro-zone’s problems are evidently having a knock-on impact elsewhere. It
is the second most important global reserve currency, therefore, any shift in its
economy and financial system, in real terms, or even only perceived by investors,
will be felt at the global level. With capacity utilization at below 80%, an unemployment
rate of more than 11% and unprecedented financial support from the
ECB, the Euro-zone’s unused capacity has never been so large.
By unlocking these currently unused resources, continuing to provide the necessary
financial support via its monetary system to resolve the current debt issues
and having growth policies as a priority for the economy, the Euro-zone would
not only be able to gradually reduce its debt burden, but also support future economic
growth at home, and on the global stage.
assumption amounts to an easing of Chinese growth, with an average of 8.2% growth
over the 2011–2016 period. This reflects the notion that a ‘cooling’ of the economy
is a serious policy objective and that the Plan’s structural targets emphasize quality of
growth versus quantity; but it also reflects the low likelihood that has been given to
actually reaching the 7% target.
35
Chapter
1
Exp