World Oil Outlook - Opec

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 1.34
Non-OPEC liquids supply, Eurasia
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
mb/d
Figure 1.34
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Upstream investment
Developing
Countries
Decline box -- figure 2
Figure 1.37
Eurasia
Russia
Other Eurasia
mb/d
Over the period 2011–2035, upstream investment requirements for additional ca-
pacity amount 3 to $4.2 trillion in 2011 dollars. Most of this investment will be made
in non-OPEC countries: over the medium-term, non-OPEC will need to invest an
average 2.5of
$95 billion each year and in the long-term, this rises to over $110 billion
annually. OPEC, on the other hand, would need to invest an average of $45 billion
OPEC
annually 2 (Figure 1.35). The OECD’s share in global investment will be at 35% given
the high costs and decline rates in this region. Adding estimated mid-stream and
downstream Eurasia
OPEC
1.5 investment requirements (see Section Two), overall oil investment needs
to 2035 reach $6–7 trillion in the Reference Case.
1
Eurasia
Much of the investment needed is to compensate for natural declines in fields
that are currently producing oil. Because of this decline, the volumes of crude required
Developing
Countries
0.5
for compensating loss of capacity OECD are indeed very large. However, it should be noted
this need compares to the performance of the oil industry OECD in compensating for past
declines. 0 For example, over the period 1980–2011, a similar natural decline had to be
2000–2011 2011–2035
compensated for – and it was.
billion tonnes
71
Chapter
1