World Oil Outlook - Opec

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the longer term sees a steady decline in demand in all OECD regions. Fully 87%
of the increase in global demand is in developing Asia, where demand reaches 90%
of that of the OECD by 2035 (Figure 1.19). Global demand in 2035 is more than
2 mb/d lower than in the WOO 2011, due to the impacts outlined.
Per capita oil use in developing countries will stay relatively low and definitely
below the average levels in OECD countries (Figure 1.21). By 2035, oil use per
capita in developing countries will average just three barrels, compared to close to an
average of 11 barrels in the OECD. By 2035, while more than 13 barrels per person
will be consumed annually in OECD America, this ratio will still be less than two
barrels per head in India and only a little over one barrel in the Middle East & Africa
region.
Growth in oil demand since 1980 has been dominated by transportation use
– mainly road transportation, but also aviation, internal waterways and international
marine (Figures 1.22–1.25). Over the past three decades, the average annual
growth in OECD and non-OECD countries has been very similar, each at around
0.3 mboe/d. At the global level, transportation is expected to continue to dominate
growth over the projected period. However, this increase will come only from non-OECD
Figure 1.19
Growth in oil demand, 2010–2035
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
–5
mb/d
OECD oil demand
peaked in 2005
OECD America
OECD Europe
Figure 1.19
87% of the growth
in oil demand is in
developing Asia
Figure 1.21
OPEC
China
Other Asia
India
Middle East & Africa
Latin America
OECD and Eurasian countries Developing countries