World Oil Outlook - Opec

194
2
0
1990
In summary, current estimates imply that closures in the order of 7–10 mb/d are
needed (including the 5 mb/d observed or committed so far) to restore long-term refining
viability, but the prospects of reaching those levels and related higher utilization
rates are not bright. Thus, unless firmer policies are widely applied to achieve capacity
rationalization and closure across even more refineries, the outlook is for continuing
mb/d
surplus, low utilizations and soft margins.
8
1995
2000
In terms Middle of these distillates required Gasoline/Naphtha additional closures (beyond 5 mb/d) the following
question is where could they take place. Figure 6.8 maps the situation in Japan,
6
OECD Europe and the US. Refineries in Japan – with declining demand, no domestic
crude production, relatively high operating costs and, thus, little chance to
compete on international markets – have no alternative, but to adjust capacity in line
4
with local requirements. This process has already started and, if it progresses according
to commitments, will reduce spare capacity to a level of around 0.3 mb/d. Therefore,
there is little room for further closures in this country – beyond already assessed levels
– as they 2 would need to be compensated by the increased imports of refined products.
Currently Japan imports close to 1 mb/d of refined products, with net imports of
around 0.7 mb/d. In summary, additional closures in Japan cannot be excluded, but
it is unlikely 0 that these will take place on a large scale.
Figure 6.8
Distillation capacity at risk in selected regions**
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
mb/d
Other products Fuel oil
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Japan OECD Europe US
* As of 2012, estimated based on domestic demand changes assuming no changes in exports/imports.
** Equal to 95% of crude distillation capacity less crude runs.
2005
2010
2015
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
2013*
2014*
2015*
2016*
Figure 6.9
Figure 6.8