World Oil Outlook - Opec

expansion, however, remains to be seen, since investments in these refineries are scattered
across the country and are difficult to monitor. Some sources indicate the cumulative
expansion could be in the range of 0.5 mb/d. 7
Another country projected to see substantial capacity expansion in the mediumterm
is India. After recently completing several complex large-scale refineries, India
has become an important player in the global market for refined products. As discussed
earlier, although the rate of expansion in India seems to be slowing, likely
projects will still add significant capacity. In March 2012, for example, Hindustan
Petroleum fully started up a 180,000 b/d refinery in Bhatinda, Punjab province and
this year Essar Oil has also completed the expansion of its Vadinar refinery, increasing
capacity to 375,000 b/d. The latter will reportedly optimize processes – including
conversion of a visbreaker into a crude distillation unit able to process extra-heavy
feedstock – to reach up to 400,000 b/d capacity. Other projects include the expansion
of the Bina refinery, currently at 120,000 b/d, in Madhya Pradesh, planned by Bharat
Oman Refineries, and completion of a delayed 125,000 b/d refinery at Cuddalore by
Nagarjuna Oil Corporation. These projects, combined with additions expected from
the Korangi project in Pakistan, the Petrovietnam project in Nghi Son in Vietnam and
the expansion of the Chittagong refinery in Bangladesh, will result in around 1 mb/d
of additional crude distillation capacity in the region by 2016.
Middle East
Additional refining capacity in the Middle East between 2012 and 2016 is projected
to be 1.8 mb/d. The biggest portion of this capacity is expected to come from grassroots
projects in the region. The most likely developments within the time horizon
to 2016 are the Jubail and Yanbu refineries in Saudi Arabia, and the Ruwais refinery
in the UAE, each adding 400,000 b/d. In addition, there are expansions of existing
plants in Karbala in Iraq, Isfahan in Iran and Rabigh in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Aramco is partnering with Sinopec for the new Yanbu refinery and with
Total for the Jubail project. In addition to these projects, Saudi Arabia is planning
another refinery at Jizan Industrial City and has revived an older project for the expansion
of the Ras Tanura refinery, which would add another 400,000 b/d of new capacity
to the already existing 550,000 b/d facility. However, these projects are expected to
be completed after 2016. Similarly, a question mark remains over the implementation
date of the huge (625,000 b/d) Al-Zour project in Kuwait, which was initially cancelled,
and is now being re-considered.
Elsewhere, Iraq is in negotiations with several investors on building four new refineries
with a total capacity of 0.75 mb/d. The UAE has announced plans to build a new
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