World Oil Outlook - Opec

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the timing of the project is cited between 2018 and 2020. Refinery capacity in some
form is also likely to be realized in Uganda, although it is not yet clear which of the
three proposed projects will actually go ahead, and when.
Growing demand for refined products in Africa, as well as the availability of local
crude, would certainly justify more investments in Africa’s refining industry, but due
to local circumstances, only around 0.3 mb/d of new distillation capacity is estimated
to be available by 2016, compared to the 2011 base. In addition, the Sub-Saharan
African countries particularly are the subject of competition from exporters in Europe,
the Middle East and Asia to supply products.
Figure 6.2 shows the latest 2012 assessment of existing refining projects, compared
to 2011. In total, incremental distillation capacity is 0.4 mb/d higher this
year than it was for the period of 2011–2015 – it is currently 7.2 mb/d compared to
6.8 mb/d last year. Last year’s review pointed to the Asia-Pacific and Latin America
as the regions with the highest year-on-year increments. This year, the major change
(in part because of the inclusion of 2016) is the large increase in Middle East capacity
additions, up from 1.2 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d, which is much closer to China,
for which additions are projected at 2.2 mb/d. In contrast, Europe shows a sharp
decline in additions; this is because of the elimination from the list of projects that
Figure 6.2
Distillation capacity additions up to 2015 from existing projects, 2011 and 2012
assessment
3
2
1
0
100
mb/d
mb/d
US &
Canada
2011 (for the period 2011–2015)
2012 (for the period 2012–2016)
Latin
America
Africa Europe FSU Middle
East
China Other
Asia
Figure 6.2
Figure 6.4