World Oil Outlook - Opec

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250 21. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2012 edition, OPEC Secretariat. 22. Hart Energy, Global Shale Oil Study, February 2011. 23. Wood Mackenzie. 24. Hart Energy/Rystad Energy, 2Q2012 North American Shale Quarterly Report. 25. In August 2012, the Director-General of the UN Food and Agricultural Organization, Jose Graziano da Silva, pleaded for the suspension of biofuel mandates, see Financial Times, 10 August 2012. It is also worth mentioning the recent decision of the EU to not increase biofuels targets and to include sustainability criteria for biofuels that are considered for reaching this target. 26. See ‘Global Biofuels Outlook 2011–2012’, Hart Energy, 2011. 27. Although there is still debate over the direction of causality between savings and economic growth. 28. For example, ‘IMF World Economic Outlook’, October 2012 and ‘India’s Challenge: Harnessing Demographics for Long-Term Growth’, Roubini Global Economics, 16 April 2012. 29. The IMF sees the Euro-zone’s budget deficit falling to 3.2% in 2012 from 6.3% in 2012. MOMR, May 2012, OPEC Secretariat. 30. Lower demand leads to a slight fall in processing gains, so the fall in OPEC crude supply relative to the Reference Case is 9.1 mb/d, compared to the 9.3 mb/d drop in demand. 31. http://www.slb.com/news/press_releases/2012/2012_0308_sbchrbenchmark_pr.aspx.
Section Two 1. The World Oil Refining Logistic and Demand model is a trademark of EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc. OPEC’s version of the model was developed jointly with EnSys Energy & Systems. 2. For example, Technology Outlook 2020, DNV, 2012. 3. Ethane demand in this Section relates to petroleum-derived ethane, excluding ethane from natural gas. 4. Both the US and Canada have ECAs that came into effect as of 1 August 2012. 5. http://www.icis.com/Articles/2012/04/02/9546235/afpm-shale-gas-leads-to-megaprojects.html,http://www.frackcheckwv.net/2012/04/03/the-future-of-ethane-crackerchemical-plants-in-the-u-s/,http://www.plasticstoday.com/articles/ExxonMobil-plansto-build-new-ethane-cracker-and-two-PE-units-in-Texas-0601201201. 6. Fuel oil, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas prices are not regulated but those for gasoline, diesel, etc., are. 7. International Oil Daily, Tuesday, 7 February 2012. 8. ESPO crude enjoys tax reductions which should be on a temporary basis. 9. 90% is considered the maximum sustainable utilization rate over the longer period for a region. 10. The ‘narrow escapes’ encountered by the Sunoco Philadelphia and Phillips66 Trainer refineries, combined with sales and planned restarts at some of the idled Petroplus refineries in Europe, have arguably (according to a range of industry commentators) served only to continue to depress margins in the Atlantic Basin, which otherwise were beginning to show signs of recovery. As such, these ‘escapes’ sustain the need for further closures. 11. An underlying assumption for the projected continuing growth in US ethanol supply is that cellulosic ethanol technology will be available in the longer term. The first commercial scale cellulosic ethanol plant are currently under construction in the US. 12. ‘EPA Analysis of the Transportation Sector: Greenhouse Gas and Oil Reduction Scenarios’, 10 February 2010. 13. Europe was the next most important destination at 0.6 mb/d, followed by Asia/Middle East/Africa at 0.5 mb/d and Canada at 0.25 mb/d. 14. Oil here includes crude oil, refined products, intermediates and non-crude streams (including biofuels and GTLs). 15. Compared to last year’s report, trade data for the base year 2011 were adjusted to account for changes in regional definitions. 16. Because of aggregated regions, some movements are eliminated. For example, between regions in the US and Canada, and trade within Latin America, Africa and Asia. Therefore, total trade volumes are lower than reported earlier in this Chapter. 17. It is assumed that the current policy of no crude exports from the US will be in place over the entire forecast period. 251 Footnotes
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
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Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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Page 265: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
Page 277 and 278: OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280: Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282: Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283: World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287: 270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289: 272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291: Annex D
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Page 294 and 295: 278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297: 280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298: Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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