World Oil Outlook - Opec

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168 10 ppm 11–99 ppm 100–150 ppm 151–600 ppm Figure 5.13 Maximum on-road diesel sulphur limits, September 2012 Maximum On-Road Diesel Sulfur Limits Source: Hart Energy’s IFQC, September 2012. 601–2,500 ppm 10–15 ppm 16–50 ppm 51–350 ppm 351–500 ppm 501–2,000 ppm >2,000 ppm sulphur content specification for 20 urban centres is established at a 50 ppm maximum, and the national specification is 350 ppm. Other countries in Asia where improvements in on-road diesel quality have been observed include Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. In Latin America, the maximum sulphur limit for premium diesel in Argentina was lowered from 50 ppm to 10 ppm in June 2011. Chile has been at 50 ppm diesel since 2006. Elsewhere, although premium diesel with tighter quality specification is available, the majority of countries still have sulphur limits for diesel oil above 500 ppm, although progress has been reported from countries such as Brazil, Ecuador and Mexico. The region with the largest sulphur content is Africa, as in most countries it is in the range of 2,000 to 3,000 ppm for on-road diesel, and much higher for off-road. The exceptions are South Africa, which plans a switch to 10 ppm fuels by 2017, and some of the countries in the North African sub-region. Looking at the long-term prospects, the timeline for sulphur reduction does not differ significantly from last year’s WOO, although there has been progress
observed in several countries since then, as well as postponements at the legislative level elsewhere. It should be highlighted that the resulting differences in the consumption weighted average sulphur content – compared to last year’s projections – might not necessarily be caused by legislative change, as the update of product demand among countries within a given region also have a strong effect on the final average value as well. In respect to gasoline, while future quality initiatives will continue to concentrate primarily on sulphur, there is now an growing focus on increasing the octane number and the reduction of benzene and aromatics. Projected gasoline qualities in respect to sulphur content for 2012–2035 are shown in Table 5.3. The removal of sulphur from middle distillates, specifically diesel, presents a greater challenge to the refining industry than its removal from gasoline. This is mainly due to the fact that it has a greater need for processing unit additions, and subsequently, higher investment costs. Table 5.4 summarizes regional diesel fuel qualities between 2012 and 2035 for on-road diesel, with a projected step-wise progress in quality improvements for all developing regions. For Europe and North America, on-road and off-road ultra-low sulphur programmes already require diesel sulphur to be below 15 ppm for most of the diesel market (10 ppm in Europe). By 2015, the most significant reduction in sulphur content for on-road diesel compared to 2012 is projected to be in Latin America and the Table 5.3 Expected regional gasoline sulphur content* ppm Region 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 US & Canada 30 30 10 10 10 10 Latin America 520 255 130 45 30 20 Europe 13 10 10 10 10 10 Middle East 605 235 75 25 16 10 FSU 315 115 35 20 12 10 Africa 795 493 245 165 95 65 Asia-Pacific 205 130 65 35 20 15 * Estimated regional weighted average sulphur content is based on volumes of fuel corresponding to country specific legislated requirements, as well as expected market quality. Source: Hart Energy, <strong>World</strong> Refining & Fuels Services (WRFS) and IFQC. 169 Chapter 5
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
Page 207 and 208: -1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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