World Oil Outlook - Opec

Table 2.12
Growth in oil demand in marine bunkers in the Reference Case % p.a.
1990–2009 2009–2020 2020–2035
OECD America –0.7 1.1 –0.2
OECD Europe 1.5 –1.2 –0.3
OECD Asia Oceania 3.0 –7.3 –0.5
OECD 1.0 –1.2 –0.3
Latin America 4.6 4.7 2.8
Middle East & Africa –0.3 1.9 1.1
India 0.4 –13.2 0.0
China 10.5 11.6 7.3
Other Asia 6.4 2.2 2.8
OPEC 4.0 1.6 1.8
Developing countries 5.1 3.7 3.9
Russia 0.5 6.7 6.1
Other Eurasia 5.4 1.3 2.3
Eurasia 2.9 3.8 4.6
World 2.7 1.7 2.8
discussed in Section Two. However, as described in the WOO 2011, safety concerns
and infrastructure constraints are likely to limit this effect.
Taking all this into account, it is assumed in the Reference Case that only minor
downward pressures emerge on the overall volume of oil used in this sector. The
outlook continues to see growth in international trade affecting shipping activity,
with on-going efficiency improvements playing a role in limiting oil demand growth.
Tables 2.11 and 2.12 show the Reference Case projections for the increase in oil demand
in marine bunkers, which is 3.1 mboe/d over the years 2009–2035. The biggest
increase, as in the previous WOO, is in China and Other Asia, which account
for 85% of the demand growth. Total OECD oil demand in this sector falls over the
projection period.
Other sectors
Petrochemicals
After the transportation sector, the next largest user of oil is ‘industry’. In the Reference
Case this sector is split into two distinct categories: petrochemicals and other
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