World Oil Outlook - Opec

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62 countries. The key to future demand growth is in transportation in non-OECD countries, which accounts for close to three-quarters of the increase in oil demand in the period to 2035. In contrast to both OECD and Eurasian countries, developing countries also see a rise in oil use in other sectors (petrochemicals, household/commercial/ agriculture, other industrial uses). But all regions will see the small amount of oil that is still used for electricity generation decline in the future. Liquids supply Liquids supply in the medium-term The development of medium-term Reference Case figures for non-OPEC liquids supply relies on a bottom-up approach that uses data from producing fields, upstream development projects and proven reserves. (For longer term projections, the total resource base is a key input to the assessment.) The approach involves a ‘risking’ process, which considers both estimated declines from fields currently in production and an assessment of new oil that is expected to appear over the medium-term from fields either under development or which are expected to be developed over the next five years. In much the same way, medium-term paths for biofuels and other forms of liquid supply are estimated based on currently producing plants and projects, but are also influenced by legislation targeting minimum levels of certain fuels. Details of these assessments are explored in Chapter 3. OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) documents that OPEC Member Countries account for 81% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. At the regional level, 54% of this oil is contained in the Middle East, 22% in Latin America, 8.5% in Africa, while only 3% is found in North America (Figure 1.26). In previous WOO Reference Cases, no significant contribution of shale oil to liquids supply was envisaged. In this year’s <strong>Outlook</strong>, a rise in the importance of shale oil is expected, as described in more detail in Chapter 3. However, it should be noted that production in the future is likely to be beset with several constraints and challenges, such as environmental concerns, questions over the availability of equipment and trained staff, rising costs and steep decline rates. Nevertheless, the development of this resource is moving rapidly in the US and even since the preparation of the previous WOO, production levels have markedly increased: supply from Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara in the US is already over 1 mb/d, and despite severe decline rates, emerging forecasts now see supply from oil shale rising rapidly. In the previous WOO Reference Case, crude oil plus Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) supply in the US & Canada fell from 9.4 mb/d in 2010 to 6.8 mb/d by 2035. By including significant additions from shale oil, this decline in crude supply will be far slower. With this in
Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at end 2011 billion barrels North America 39.4 Proven oil reserves at end 2011 (billion barrels) 327.0 S. & Central America 128.6 Africa Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2012 edition. OECD Europe 12.6 mind, an assumption of between 2 mb/d and 3 mb/d of shale oil is assumed to emerge by 2020 and 2035, respectively. The lower growth after 2020 is justified by the fact that the best shale oil plays will be tapped first. Short-term data revisions for non-OPEC crude and NGLs supply in OECD Europe, OECD Asia Oceania, Middle East & Africa, Asia and the Caspian have shifted the 2011 base down by almost 700,000 b/d. The medium-term expectations for crude supply from Middle East and Africa and the Caspian region (other Eurasia) have become somewhat more pessimistic due to new data on investment projects. Regarding biofuels, since the WOO 2011, growing debt burdens across many countries are now thought to represent a hurdle, given the reduced willingness and ability to subsidize biofuels. Moreover, experience has already shown the difficulties in achieving established targets (for example, due to the introduction of waivers, delays in the implementation of directives, on-going concerns over the implications for land use changes, concerns over capital availability, high feedstock prices, and growing perceptions that targets for second-generation biofuels are clearly over-ambitious). The biofuels outlook has, therefore, been slightly adjusted downwards to reflect these insights and their impact on medium-term projections, but also to reflect the 796.8 Eurasia 127.0 Middle East Asia Pacific 50.1 63 Chapter 1
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89: 2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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