World Oil Outlook - Opec

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countries. The key to future demand growth is in transportation in non-OECD countries,
which accounts for close to three-quarters of the increase in oil demand in the
period to 2035. In contrast to both OECD and Eurasian countries, developing countries
also see a rise in oil use in other sectors (petrochemicals, household/commercial/
agriculture, other industrial uses). But all regions will see the small amount of oil that
is still used for electricity generation decline in the future.
Liquids supply
Liquids supply in the medium-term
The development of medium-term Reference Case figures for non-OPEC liquids supply
relies on a bottom-up approach that uses data from producing fields, upstream
development projects and proven reserves. (For longer term projections, the total resource
base is a key input to the assessment.) The approach involves a ‘risking’ process,
which considers both estimated declines from fields currently in production and an
assessment of new oil that is expected to appear over the medium-term from fields
either under development or which are expected to be developed over the next five
years. In much the same way, medium-term paths for biofuels and other forms of liquid
supply are estimated based on currently producing plants and projects, but are also
influenced by legislation targeting minimum levels of certain fuels. Details of these
assessments are explored in Chapter 3.
OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) documents that OPEC Member
Countries account for 81% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. At the regional
level, 54% of this oil is contained in the Middle East, 22% in Latin America, 8.5% in
Africa, while only 3% is found in North America (Figure 1.26).
In previous WOO Reference Cases, no significant contribution of shale oil to
liquids supply was envisaged. In this year’s Outlook, a rise in the importance of shale
oil is expected, as described in more detail in Chapter 3. However, it should be noted
that production in the future is likely to be beset with several constraints and challenges,
such as environmental concerns, questions over the availability of equipment
and trained staff, rising costs and steep decline rates. Nevertheless, the development
of this resource is moving rapidly in the US and even since the preparation of the
previous WOO, production levels have markedly increased: supply from Bakken,
Eagle Ford and Niobrara in the US is already over 1 mb/d, and despite severe decline
rates, emerging forecasts now see supply from oil shale rising rapidly. In the previous
WOO Reference Case, crude oil plus Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) supply in the US
& Canada fell from 9.4 mb/d in 2010 to 6.8 mb/d by 2035. By including significant
additions from shale oil, this decline in crude supply will be far slower. With this in