World Oil Outlook - Opec

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146 Table 5.1 Global product demand, shares and growth, 2011–2035 Light products Global demand mb/d 2011 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2011– 2016 Growth rates % p.a. 2016– 2035 * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Shares % 2011 2035 Ethane/LPG 9.2 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 1.1 0.6 10.5 10.3 Naphtha 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.8 1.8 1.6 6.8 8.2 Gasoline Middle distillates 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.5 25.3 26.1 0.9 0.8 24.5 24.3 Jet/Kerosene 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.7 8.0 1.0 0.9 7.4 7.5 Diesel/Gasoil Heavy products 26.0 28.9 31.3 33.2 34.7 36.0 2.1 1.2 29.6 33.6 Residual fuel* 8.8 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.3 –1.4 –1.4 10.1 5.8 Other** 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 0.8 0.4 11.1 10.3 Total 87.8 92.9 96.9 100.9 104.2 107.3 1.1 0.8 100.0 100.0 Despite the fact that part of the additional demand will be covered by nonrefinery products, it is clear that these structural changes cannot be achieved by simply increasing refinery crude runs. They require investments to change the configuration of the global refining system (Chapters 6 and 7). Gasoil/diesel is expected to witness the largest volume gain, increasing by more than 10 mb/d between 2011 and 2035, mainly due to the growing transport sector including marine bunkers. However, on a percentage basis, naphtha is anticipated to be the fastest growing product in the long-term, especially in developing Asian countries. Following a temporary decline in 2009, demand growth for naphtha resumed in 2010 and is expected to continue over both the medium- and long-term. The average growth rate for naphtha in the medium-term is 1.8% per annum (p.a.), and in the long-term it is 1.6% p.a. The largest volume increase for naphtha is projected for the Asia-Pacific, around 3 mb/d between 2011 and 2035, while China itself accounts for roughly half of this increase as its petrochemical industry expands significantly.
Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global product demand, 2011 and 2035 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 mb/d Ethane/ LPG 2011 2035 Naphtha Gasoline Jet/ Kerosene Diesel/ Gasoil * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Figure 5.2 Figure Figure 5.25.3 Global outlook for oil demand by product, 2010–2035 120 2.5 100 2.0 80 1.5 60 1.0 40 0.5 mb/d mb/d 0 Asia-Pacific Middle East FSU Europe Africa Latin America US & Canada Residual fuel* Other products** 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Figure 5.5 Figure 5.4 12 20 0 Chapter 5 147 45 6 mb/d 40 mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Ethane/LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual fuel* Other products** 120 100 12 9 6 3 0 –3 80 60 40 20 0 m
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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