World Oil Outlook - Opec

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200 As a primary means to increase the production of much needed middle distillates, new hydro-crackers will be scattered throughout almost all regions, including additions of around 0.2–0.3 mb/d in each of North America, Europe (Southern and Eastern) and the FSU. Additions in the latter will be driven by prospects of higher diesel/gasoil exports to Europe, which is, and will remain short of this product. The Middle East should see 0.35 mb/d of additions, as elements of the major new refinery projects in the region, notably Jubail and Yanbu, plus projects in Iran and, potentially, the UAE are added. The most new hydro-cracking units will be constructed in Asia, 0.55 mb/d of capacity, where diesel demand growth is highest. Out of 1.5 mb/d of global additional coking capacity, around 0.45 mb/d is projected for Asia, more than 0.3 mb/d will be built in Latin America and 0.2 mb/d in North America. FCC units, accounting for around 1.2 mb/d of conversion capacity, will be constructed mainly in Asia, the Middle East, the FSU and Latin America, for the reasons set out earlier. Coking additions are geared to the upgrading of heavy crudes and so are present mainly in Latin America and the US & Canada for processing oil sands ‘DilBit’. Additions are projected in all regions, though, partly as a result of a growth in supplies of high Total Acid Number (TAN) and other heavy crudes in most regions, combined with declines in residual fuel demand. As mentioned previously, FCC additions are mainly in developing regions where there is growth in gasoline demand. Broadly speaking, in regions where there is relatively balanced growth in demand across products, including gasoline, there is a fairly even distribution of additions across the three conversion processes. Desulphurization capacity will increase by 6.2 mb/d in the period to 2016. Most of the new capacity will be realized in Asia (2.8 mb/d) with another 1.4 mb/d and 0.8 mb/d in the Middle East and Latin America, respectively. This partly reflects recent trends towards cleaner products within these regions, but also an effort by exportoriented refineries to provide low or ULS products for their potential customers in developed countries. This rationale is also driving desulphurization capacity additions in Russia. Remaining capacity additions are shared by North America (0.3 mb/d), Africa (0.3 mb/d) and Europe (0.1 mb/d). Additions in North America and Europe are mainly related to achieving compliance with ULS gasoline and off-, as well as on-road diesel standards, including – in the case of the US – for export. There is a last category of capacity additions, commonly referred to as octane units, which refers to the quality of finished gasoline. It is generally comprised of catalytic reforming, isomerization and alkylation processes. Projections suggest that about 1.7 mb/d of these processes will be added to the global refining system during the period 2012–2016. Catalytic reforming will account for the majority of this,
80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. This capacity will primarily be constructed in regions where gasoline demand increases are expected: Asia (0.6 mb/d), the Middle East (0.3 mb/d), Latin America (0.16 mb/d) and the gasoline-dominated North American market 50 (0.1 mb/d). In addition, lesser amounts of isomerization (0.2 mb/d) and alkylation 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (0.2 mb/d) units are planned. Since all these processes are gasoline-related, the regional distribution of their additions is similar to reforming capacity additions. Significant additions are also evident in hydrogen, sulphur recovery and other units, in order to support the various cracking, desulphurization and octane units. 10 The combination of additional distillation capacity and secondary process units Figure 6.6 projected to 2016 Effect leads of refinery to an closures increased potential for the global refining system to produce 8 incremental barrels of specific refined products. To some extent, refiners have some flexibility in optimizing their final product slate by either altering the composition 6of their feedstock or by adjusting the operating modes of process units. This flexibility, however, is limited for any one unit and for any given refinery. With all this in mind, Figure 6.9 presents an estimation of the potential cumulative incremental 4 output of refined products, grouped into major product categories, resulting from existing projects. The assessed implementation of current projects would allow for a total of 2 around 7.2 mb/d of additional products to be available by 2016, compared to 2011 levels. The majority of this increase is for middle distillates (3.2 mb/d) and light products, naphtha and gasoline (2.7 mb/d). In addition, fuel oil production is set to 0 Figure 6.9 Cumulative potential for incremental product output 8 6 4 2 0 mb/d 1990 mb/d 1995 2000 Other products Fuel oil Middle distillates Gasoline/Naphtha 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2010 2015 201 Chapter 6 Figure 6.9 Figure 6.8
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
Page 207 and 208: -1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
Page 215: costly and have shorter lead times.
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
Page 233 and 234: 0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
Page 235 and 236: 5 of the refining base and demand,
Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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World Oil Outlook - Opec

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