World Oil Outlook - Opec

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44 over the past decades, on the back of earlier high birth rates. However, the ‘peak’ appears to have almost been reached: throughout the projection period to 2035, the share of working age population is expected to steadily decline after 2015, from a peak of around 72% to just 63% in 2035. This is in contrast to the situation in India where higher birth rates feed into a steadily rising share of the labour force throughout the years to 2035. This means that the benefit China has enjoyed in terms of surplus in the labour force will disappear and, very likely, this will lead to increased wages and a loss in labour-cost comparative advantage. Figure 1 India-China population Working-age population in China and India 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 millions India China 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 The average annual population growth rate in India over the projection period, which is 1.1% p.a., is 1.6% p.a. higher than the 0.5% p.a. decline in China. This is one important factor to consider in making any economic growth assumptions. The second key element is trends in Figure Total 1.8 Factor Productivity (TFP), defined in this context as economic output per head of the labour force. China has reached a mboe/d stage in its economic development where the impact of external demand on economic 400 growth has started to diminish. Moreover, there are the diminished impacts of the previous Nuclear/Hydro/Biomass/Other structural reforms renewables that shifted resources from agriculture to indus- 350 Gas try, the exhausted gains from first generation policy reforms and the absorption of Coal <strong>Oil</strong> 300 250 200
imported technologies. Trends in TFP for India, on the other hand, have become increasingly optimistic in light of recent economic reforms. Part of the support for strong TFP growth in India comes from the demographic trends already outlined. The strong expansion in the country’s working-age population not only provides an impetus for growth through the sheer size of the labour force, but also reduces the dependency ratio (the working age population divided by total population). This, in turn, raises the savings ratio, which supports investment, as well as internal demand for goods and services. The performance of the services sector in India has tremendous implications for growth, too, given that it is the largest sector of the economy. It is export-intensive, employment-oriented and attractive to foreign direct investment. Therefore, the sustainability of the growth of the services sector is vital to the Indian economy. Despite these strong supportive elements for continued robust growth, there are some constraints to Indian growth. The benefits of reforms were rapid, as the country moved from a state-controlled economy to a more competitive economy over the last two decades or so. However, there is considerable uncertainty over the speed of implementation of the next phase of planned reforms, and progress appears to be slow within the current ruling coalition. There is also a potential drag on growth if educational standards are not improved. Nevertheless, this Reference Case assigns an optimistic view of Indian TFP growth. As a result, within 10 years, India is assumed to have a higher economic growth rate than China. Demand side policies The WOO has consistently presented a Reference Case based on policies already in place. Recent key policies that have been factored in include the EU package of measures for climate change and renewable objectives, and the US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). This year, however, the WOO also introduces implications for the new measures that were reported in the WOO 2011 concerning international marine bunker fuel, the standards for which are administered by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a UN agency, under the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL 5 ). The July 2011 meeting of the IMO Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC62) resulted in significant new regulations, namely, the first-ever greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations for new ships. There is evidently uncertainty over how the volumes of fuel used will be impacted, but the 2012 Reference Case reflects the downward pressure on oil demand resulting from these new regulations. In particular, the IMO regulations on 45 Chapter 1
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12: Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17: Foreword
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 24 and 25: e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89: 2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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