World Oil Outlook - Opec

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210 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.1 Global gasoline demand and ethanol supply, 2010–2035 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 mb/d Net gasoline demand ex-refineries Ethanol supply 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 continue to decline through to 2035 Figure as ethanol 7.3 supplies rise, while improved vehicle efficiencies cut consumption. The projected decline is to below 8 mb/d ex-refinery by 2020, and to around 6 mb/d by 2035. total demand 3 across all US transport fuels could be reduced by 4 mb/d by 2030 – and place. 2 12 mb/d In short, renewable fuels and transport efficiency legislation are projected to re- 5 move 0.5 mb/d of demand for gasoline production from US & Canadian refineries by 2030–2035 2020, and well 2025–2030 over 2 mb/d by 2035. The Reference Case is for total US & Canadian 4 2020–2025 liquids demand 2015–2020 to decline by 2.7 mb/d between 2010 and 2035. It is worth noting that a 2010 study 2011–2015 by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projected that possibly more than 6 mb/d – if more aggressive measures were adopted than those in As 1 a result of declining regional demand, it is inevitable that US refinery throughputs will progressively need to make adjustments, although part of the decline is being offset by increasing product exports. This trend is already taking place since the 0 US became a US net & product Latin exporter Africa in Europe 2011 after FSU many Middle years China of being Other a net product importer. Moreover, Canada America higher product exports are leading East to an increasing Asia degree of competition on international markets, notably for gasoline, as surplus capacity for the product exists, or will be added, in the US Gulf Coast, northern and southern Europe, Russia, the Middle East, India and other locations. Sulphur % (wt) Figure 7.6 10 8 6 4 2 0 36.0 35.0 34.0 33.0 32.0 31.0
Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasoline demand and ethanol supply in the US & Canada, 2010–2035 10 8 6 4 2 0 mb/d Net gasoline demand ex-refineries Ethanol supply 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Europe’s refining sector will also likely experience a decline in refinery throughputs. Efficiency/carbon emissions reductions Figure and 7.5carbon intensity mandates are expected to drive down demand, while increasing biofuel supply. In the period 2010– 2035, demand API declines by around 2.5 mb/d and biofuels supply rises by nearly 1.2 mb/d. 36.0 In other words, there is a steady reduction in the need for crude-based refinery products that exceeds 3 mb/d by 2035. As a consequence, Non-OPEC no refinery capacity expansion beyond current projects is needed through the period OPECto 2035. As in the 35.0 US, regional refinery throughputs are projected to drop from <strong>World</strong> 13.1 mb/d in 2010 to 11.3 mb/d by 2020 and to 9.4 mb/d by 2035. This is a total reduction of 3.7 mb/d, broadly 34.0 matching the reduction in refinery product demand. Even allowing for the significant refinery closures to date, utilizations are expected to steadily decline to 60% 33.0 by 2035, again signifying the potential for a substantial rationalization of capacity in the region – in the range of an additional 4 mb/d. 32.0 As is the case with Europe, no new refinery capacity will be needed in the Pacific OECD countries. The outlook allows for a series of closures in the region, primarily in Japan, 31.0 where it is driven by a combination of declining demand and a new government 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 order which mandates increases to refinery upgrading ratios. The latter is leading refiners to fully or partially close refineries – or at least cut their distillation capacity – rather than add new upgrading units. As a result, 2035 utilization for the region is projected at nearly 78% (compared to 60% last year, a projection that did not include any closures). mb/d Figure 7.7 211 Chapter 7
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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