World Oil Outlook - Opec

50
One of the reasons for the shrinking of Japanese oil consumption during the
period 1979–1985 was the construction of several nuclear plants for electricity generation.
This led to the substitution of crude and fuel oil, and caused a drop in demand
of around 1.2 mb/d for the whole period. Although direct fuel burning was still
declining prior to the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011, the natural disaster
may have significantly changed the country’s energy map, at least for the short- and
medium-term. Following the shutdown of its nuclear reactors, the country switched
to other forms of fuel to produce electricity. Consequently, if and when nuclear power
plants are returned to service, this should impact total oil demand prospects in Japan
over the short- and medium-term.
Outside of Japan, several OECD countries (particularly Germany, but also Switzerland
and Italy) have decided not to replace retiring nuclear plants with new ones,
reversing earlier plans. In March 2011, Germany shut down half of its nuclear plants;
it then passed legislation in June to phase out the remainder of its nuclear power stations
by 2022. In Switzerland, the final nuclear power plant is expected to have closed
by the end of this WOO’s projection period. And a referendum in Italy has rejected
any move back towards nuclear power. More stringent safety regulations are also likely
to affect the future economics of nuclear power, but the consequences beyond the
OECD appear to be negligible, with pre-Fukushima plans elsewhere generally going
ahead as intended.
The Reference Case reflects the potential long-term effects of these developments
on the prospects for nuclear power in Japan and some European countries. As
a result, the contribution of nuclear to the energy mix has been reduced. However,
as the impacts are assumed to be negligible elsewhere, the overall impact is seen to be
modest. Nuclear energy expands in the Reference Case at an average rate of 1.7% p.a.
in total, with a share in the mix of 6% in 2035, similar to today.
Of the other non-fossil fuels, commercial biomass has the next largest share in
the energy mix. Its use expands rapidly and its contribution to total supply approaches
that of nuclear by 2035. Almost 40% of the commercial use of biomass in the OECD
is in the electricity generation sector, where its use has doubled over the past two decades.
It is important to note that the energy supply figures in Table 1.4 do not include
non-commercial biomass. The shift from non-commercial to commercial energy use
in developing countries is reflected in the Reference Case as an impact on energy
demand growth.
The use of renewable energy, other than hydropower and biomass, predominates
in America, Europe and Asia (Figure 1.12). This has been rising at close to 5%
p.a. globally over the past twenty years. In the Reference Case, this increase is set