World Oil Outlook - Opec

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166 were required to ensure certain volumes of 10 ppm fuels in their markets – alongside 50 ppm fuels – to facilitate deployment of more efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles, resulting in many EU countries reaching full penetration of 10 ppm gasoline before 2009. Japan has required 10 ppm gasoline since January 2008, but this level had already been reached in 2005. South Korea and Hong Kong also reduced gasoline sulphur to 10 ppm maximum in January 2009 and July 2010, respectively. In recent years, other European countries, including Turkey, Macedonia, Albania and Croatia have switched to 10 ppm gasoline. The growing demand for gasoline in a number of developing countries means that any improvement in its quality has a considerable impact on required hydrotreating capacity and associated investments. Despite significant improvements in many developing countries, however, in general, these countries still lag somewhat behind. China’s nationwide gasoline sulphur limit was reduced to 150 ppm in December 2009. Stricter fuel quality requirements of 50 ppm are imposed in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Nanjing. Beijing has the strictest fuel quality Figure 5.12 Maximum gasoline sulphur limits, September 2012 Maximum Gasoline Sulfur Limit 10 ppm 11–99 ppm 100–150 ppm 151–600 ppm Source: Hart Energy’s International Fuel Quality Centre (IFQC), September 2012. Maximum On-Road Diesel Sulfur Limits 601–2,500 ppm
equirement of 10 ppm. China is expected to lower its nationwide limits to 50 ppm by December 2013, and possibly to 10 ppm by 2016. India requires 150 ppm sulphur gasoline nationwide, while 50 ppm has been required for 13 selected cities since September 2010 – and for seven additional cities since March 2012. India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has identified 50 other cities with large vehicle populations and high pollution levels to be included in the implementation of 50 ppm sulphur gasoline. This is expected to be conducted in phases and completed by 2015. Other major consuming countries around the globe are also progressing with tightening gasoline quality specifications, albeit from much softer current requirements. This trend is especially evident in the Middle East, Russia, South Africa and some countries in Latin America. Saudi Arabia plans to switch to 10 ppm gasoline by 2013, followed soon after by other countries in the Middle East region, while Russia expects a nationwide penetration of 10 ppm gasoline by 2016. South Africa has agreed to enforce 10 ppm gasoline by 2017. Turning to diesel fuel specifications, these not only differ between countries and regions, but also between various sectors. In the EU, the European Fuel Quality Directive has required on-road diesel fuel sulphur content to be set at 10 ppm since 2009, with off-road diesel sulphur reaching the same level in January 2011 (there is derogation in some countries and sectors). Sulphur limits of 10 ppm for on-road diesel fuel are also in place in Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan. In Canada, a switch to 15 ppm for on-road diesel happened in June 2006 and off-road diesel was fully aligned in October 2010. The same level of maximum 15 ppm sulphur for on-road diesel has also existed in the US since 2010, though California introduced a 15 ppm limit for both on-road and off-road in June 2006. At the US federal level, the off-road diesel limit of 15 ppm maximum came in to effect in 2012, with the exception of small refineries, which are required to do so by 2014. China planned to reduce its on-road diesel sulphur to 350 ppm in January 2010, but the deadline was later postponed to July 2012. This limit, however, is still not widely enforced. Nevertheless, at the more regional level, Beijing has a diesel sulphur limit of 10 ppm, while cities of Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzen, Dongguan and Nanjing have required a 50 ppm maximum since May 2012. It is worth stating that the legislation behind this switch includes China’s first official differentiation between on-road and off-road diesel requirements. India has also set two different diesel fuel specifications, one for nationwide supply and the other for 20 selected cities. The 167 Chapter 5
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
Page 207 and 208: -1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
Page 215 and 216: costly and have shorter lead times.
Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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World Oil Outlook - Opec

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