World Oil Outlook - Opec

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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe/d 0.6 Figure 2.13 Figure 2.13 Oil use in the petrochemical sector in 2009 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 mboe/d OECD America OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe China Other Asia OPEC Russia Latin America Source: OECD/IEA Energy Balances of OECD/non-OECD countries, 2011. Figure 2.14 Growth in oil use in the petrochemical sector, 2000–2009 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 –0.2 mboe/d mboe/d Eurasia OECD Source: OECD/IEA Energy Balances of OECD/non-OECD countries, 2011. India Other M. East & Eurasia Africa Figure 2.14 Developing countries Figure 2.15
industry. Total ‘industry’ oil usage in 2009 accounted for 28% of the global figure. Petrochemicals alone accounted for almost 11%, as a feedstock and as energy to transform feedstocks into end products. Over 60% of petrochemical oil use is in OECD countries (Figure 2.13). Among developing countries, more than 90% of oil use is in OPEC or Asia. However, what these relative rates of usage disguise, is that the increase in oil use in the petrochemicals sector over the past decade has been predominantly in developing countries (Figure 2.14). The Reference Case outlook for oil use in the petrochemical sector is presented in Tables 2.13 and 2.14. Demand in developing countries increases to 5.5 mboe/d by 2035, similar to the level in OECD countries by that year. By 2030, non-OECD oil use in the petrochemicals sector will exceed that of OECD countries. The key to demand growth is in OPEC and developing Asia, which together account for threequarters of the global increase. The closure of steam crackers operating in OECD countries is likely, particularly in the US. A key uncertainty over the growth in oil demand for this sector concerns competition from natural gas, which currently benefits from a favourable large price spread. Table 2.13 Oil demand in the petrochemical sector in the Reference Case mboe/d Levels Growth 2009 2010 2020 2035 2009–2035 OECD America 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 0.3 OECD Europe 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.1 OECD Asia Oceania 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.1 OECD 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.6 0.5 Latin America 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 Middle East & Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 India 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 China 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.4 Other Asia 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.4 OPEC 0.7 0.7 1.1 2.2 1.5 Developing countries 2.9 3.0 3.9 5.5 2.6 Russia 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 Other Eurasia 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 Eurasia 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1 World 8.6 8.8 9.9 11.9 3.3 99 Chapter 2
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89: 2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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