World Oil Outlook - Opec

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206 needed from refineries, even allowing for the 4 mb/d of refinery closures that have occurred to date. It is also apparent that continued closures in industrialized countries will be needed; but whether they will be enacted in a timely manner – or resisted, which continues to drag margins down – is open to question. The implication is for difficult times to continue for the refining sector, with severe international competition for product markets between refineries in the US (that are successfully raising product exports), Europe (where refineries are desperate to find markets for gasoline so that they can produce more co-product diesel) and new export refineries in the Middle East, India and, potentially, Brazil. All these factors are underlined in this Chapter, along with a consideration of the implications for future additions to both distillation capacity and secondary units. Distillation capacity requirements Table 7.1 presents estimated refinery distillation capacity additions in the Reference Case for the period 2011–2035. Known projects are assessed under the Reference Case as those that will be constructed. New units represent the further additions (major new units and de-bottlenecking) that are projected as needed in order to balance the system. The review of known projects arrived at an assessment of 6 mb/d of new capacity additions to come onstream by 2015 and 7.2 mb/d by 2016. In terms of the 6 mb/d of firm new capacity by 2015, the model added 0.7 mb/d of additional refinery capacity (essentially de-bottlenecking) for an overall total of 6.7 mb/d. With regards to the 7.2 mb/d of additional capacity assessed to be available by 2016, the model indicated a further 0.7 mb/d as required by 2020 and an additional 2 mb/d by 2025. Moving forward to 2030 and 2035, additional distillation capacity requirements were assessed at 2.2 mb/d and 2.1 mb/d, respectively. Cumulative total additions (firm projects plus total further model additions) are thus projected to reach 14.9 mb/d by 2035. Significantly, 40% of these additions, 6 mb/d of firm projects, are projected to be onstream by 2015, and nearly 50%, the 7.2 mb/d of firm projects, by 2016. The annual rate of capacity addition to 2015 is 1.7 mb/d. In the subsequent five-year periods – 2015–2020, 2020–2025 and so on – the required level of capacity addition averages a far lower 0.4 mb/d p.a. In short, the industry is witnessing a surge of capacity additions in the short- to medium-term, which results in a much slower rate of additions being needed thereafter, right through to 2035. The medium-term surge is a combination of projects that were authorized before the recession, notably in the US, along with others that have more recently been given the go-ahead to either meet domestic demand growth, notably in non- OECD regions led by China, to boost product export capacity in the Middle East and, secondarily, the FSU, or to process growing regional supply, specifically of heavy crudes, with a focus on the US & Canada, and Latin America. All told, some 70%
Table 7.1 Global demand growth and refinery distillation capacity additions by period mb/d Global demand Distillation capacity additions growth Known projects* New units Total Annualized 2011–2015 4.0 6.0 0.7 6.7 1.7 2015–2020 5.1 1.2 0.7 1.9 0.4 2020–2025 4.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.4 2025–2030 3.3 0.0 2.2 2.2 0.4 2030–2035 3.2 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.4 Global demand Cumulative distillation capacity additions growth Known projects* New units Total Annualized 2011–2015 4.0 6.0 0.7 6.7 1.7 2011–2020 9.1 7.2 1.4 8.6 1.0 2011–2025 13.1 7.2 3.4 10.5 0.8 2011–2030 16.4 7.2 5.6 12.8 0.7 2011–2035 19.5 7.2 7.7 14.9 0.6 * Firm projects exclude additions resulting from capacity creep. of firm capacity additions are in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, with the balance spread across other regions (with the exception of Europe). Looked at another way, total additions of 6.7 mb/d through 2015 are well in excess of the projected demand increase of 4 mb/d for that period. By 2020, this situation starts to invert and, in the long-term, cumulative refining capacity additions settle at around 75% of cumulative demand growth. This is to be expected since, in the Reference Case, non-crude supplies – NGLs, biofuels, CTLs/GTLs, petrochemical returns – satisfy around 25% of the total ‘liquids’ demand, leaving only 75% to be met by crude-based refining. Thus, today’s projects potentially represent a substantial proportion of the total additions that will be needed over the next 10-to-15 years. It is important to remember, however, that these projections entail a combination of new capacity additions in non-OECD regions, especially in Asia, at rates that are much closer to increases in regional demand levels. Table 7.2 presents the global and regional outlook in terms of refinery crude throughputs and utilizations. Obviously, future capacity additions and refinery throughputs are affected by the same set of factors. Therefore, moderate future 207 Chapter 7
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
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Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
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Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 221: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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