World Oil Outlook - Opec

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In terms of the ICE vehicle efficiencies, these will be determined by:
• The efficiencies of new vehicles, which is affected by several factors, specifically
policies, technological developments and consumer preferences;
• Government policies, which are central to the future development of new car
efficiencies; 12
• Another element of policy is related to climate change, and the extent to which
efficiency targets and alternative fuels are linked to CO 2 emissions;
• It is also important to stress that technological evolution is an innate feature of
any competitive industry, whether mandated by legislation or not;
• The impacts of new-vehicle efficiency on the average oil used per vehicle will
depend upon the rate at which old vehicles are scrapped, as well as the size of
the fleet;
• The mix between gasoline and diesel will affect average car efficiencies; and
• The scope for efficiency improvements in commercial vehicles is more limited
than for passenger cars, and fuel economy targets are generally not applied.
However, this may change over time.
The list of alternative technologies in the transportation sector has grown in
recent years, and all options clearly carry implications for average oil use per vehicle.
Some of the possibilities are highlighted below:
• Hybrids: this technology is seen as the most likely to emerge as over the projection
period to 2035. It includes both the ICE hybrid and plug-in hybrid;
• Electric vehicles: currently hindered by cost, low driving range, long charging
time and the low availability of charging stations. It is a technology that may
emerge as an alternative to ICEs for specific usages, such as over short-distances;
• Natural gas: the potential future role for natural gas in the transportation sector
is attracting increasing attention, particularly in the US (Box 2.1). Low natural
gas prices compared to gasoline in the US, and the rising importance of shale gas
production in the country, may see natural gas vehicles (NGVs) play a greater role
in the transportation sector, in particular for freight and the urban large vehicle
fleet. Over recent years, the worldwide growth for NGVs has been over 25% p.a.,
and many predict a further steep rise in market share. Perhaps the key prospect is
for LNG long-haul truck companies to switch from diesel, although the availability
of fuelling infrastructure constitutes a key obstacle that needs to be overcome;
• Other alternatives, such as fuel cells, will probably remain insignificant over the
Reference Case projection period to 2035.
Despite these possibilities, the traditional ICE vehicle will continue to be the
main road transportation mean for the foreseeable future. Many conveniences such as