World Oil Outlook - Opec

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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electricity generation in the Reference Case mboe/d Levels Growth 2009 2010 2020 2035 2009–2035 OECD America 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 OECD Europe 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 –0.2 OECD Asia Oceania 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 –0.1 OECD 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 –0.3 Latin America 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 Middle East & Africa 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 India 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 China 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Other Asia 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 –0.1 OPEC 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 –0.4 Developing countries 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 –0.1 Russia 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 –0.1 Other Eurasia 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 –0.1 Eurasia 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 –0.2 World 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.8 –0.6 Table 2.20 Growth in oil demand in electricity generation in the Reference Case % p.a. 1990–2009 2009–2020 2020–2035 OECD America –2.9 0.6 –0.1 OECD Europe –3.5 –1.6 –2.4 OECD Asia Oceania –4.8 1.0 –2.4 OECD –3.7 0.1 –1.4 Latin America 3.1 0.0 –0.8 Middle East & Africa 3.8 1.6 2.0 India 6.0 2.3 2.5 China –4.1 –1.2 –1.5 Other Asia 0.7 –0.3 –0.5 OPEC 5.6 –0.4 –1.5 Developing countries 33.1 0.1 –0.2 Russia –8.0 –2.5 –3.0 Other Eurasia –10.6 –2.4 –3.0 Eurasia –9.1 –2.4 –3.0 World –1.8 –0.1 –0.7
Chapter 3 Liquids supply Chapter 1 briefly described how total non-OPEC liquids supply continues to rise over the projection period in the Reference Case. This Chapter examines this conclusion in detail from both the medium- and long-term perspectives. The section covering the medium-term to 2016 considers, on the basis of an extensive dataset of currently producing fields and upstream projects, the prospects for non-OPEC crude and NGLs, and other liquids supply, including biofuels and oil sands. This is then extended to the long-term to 2035. As with the oil demand projections, there is a need to constantly revisit potential supply developments. With demand, it is important to react to changing economic growth expectations for the short-, medium- and long-term, changes to oil price expectations, emerging policies, and the development and penetration of newer technologies. Similarly, on the supply side, there are often changes to expectations, even over the course of the year since the last report. For example, there have been significant revisions to the expected prospects of shale oil supply. This chapter considers the detailed outlook for all forms of liquids supply and also highlights where major changes in expectations have occurred. Medium-term outlook for liquids supply Non-OPEC crude and NGLs The most dramatic change for the medium-term outlook for crude and NGLs supply relates to rising US shale oil production. Last year’s WOO identified the huge shale oil potential, but questioned the extent to which the massive deposits could be translated into supply, given constraints that included acquiring the necessary equipment and skilled labour, dealing with rising costs and environmental concerns. This year’s expanded oil shale supply projections are driven by the fact that production levels are already accelerating: total supply from the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara shale oil plays is already over 1 mb/d. And despite severe decline rates, US shale oil supply is expected to rise rapidly over the medium-term. Figure 3.1 shows how the non-OPEC liquids supply expectations for 2015 have risen by more than 2 mb/d compared to the WOO 2011. Medium-term US crude oil and NGLs production is projected to increase from 7.8 mb/d in 2011 to 9.3 mb/d 109 Chapter 3
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89: 2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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