World Oil Outlook - Opec

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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Refined product demand to 2035 In this Chapter, and the whole of Section Two, it should be noted that the regional definition used differs from that in Section One because of the necessity to include inter-regional trade flows in downstream estimates. Therefore, it is based on a geographic, rather than an institutional basis. The <strong>World</strong> <strong>Oil</strong> Refining Logistics and Demand (WORLD 1 ) model provides a working framework for all estimates related to the downstream sector. The model breaks the world into 22 regions, which for reporting purposes are aggregated into the eight major regions defined in Annex C. To a significant extent, developments in specific oil demand sectors determine the current and future demand structure in terms of the product slate. Observed key trends in sectoral demand, described in detail in Chapter 2, are reflected in projections for global product demand, as presented in Table 5.1 and Figures 5.1 and 5.2. The importance of the transportation sector is reflected in the fact that out of 19.5 mb/d of additional demand by 2035, compared to 2011, around 60% is for middle distillates – gasoil/diesel and jet/kerosene – and another 38% is for gasoline and naphtha. The main reason for this is the growth in the road transportation sector, which is driving demand for gasoline and diesel. However, demand for diesel also receives support from marine bunkers, jet/kerosene from the expanding aviation sector, and the growing petrochemical industry provides momentum for naphtha. For the remaining products, a decline in residual fuel oil is broadly offset by an increase in ethane/liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and the group of ‘other products’. A clear consequence of these demand trends is a progressive change in the make-up of the future product demand slate. Middle distillates not only record the largest volume increase, but they are also expected to increase their share in the overall slate from 37% in 2011, to 41% by 2035. The share of light products – ethane, LPG, naphtha and gasoline – will also increase, but more moderately. Their total share rises only 1%, from 42% in 2011 to 43% in 2035. In contrast, the share of (mostly) heavy products decreases by around 5%, from 21% in 2011 to 16% by 2035. 145 Chapter 5
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Page 162 and 163: 146 Table 5.1 Global product demand
Page 164 and 165: 148 Some new major petrochemical pr
Page 166 and 167: 150 will fully comply with the regu
Page 168 and 169: 152 From the economic point of view
Page 170 and 171: 5 hane/LPG phtha soline t/Kerosene
Page 172 and 173: 156 Table 5.2 Refined product deman
Page 174 and 175: 158 by 2.7% p.a. through to 2015, t
Page 176 and 177: LPG a e sene Diesel l fuel* roducts
Page 178 and 179: PG ene esel fuel* ducts** 162 Speci
Page 180 and 181: 164 0 Figure 5.11 Figure 5.11 Outlo
Page 182 and 183: 166 were required to ensure certain
Page 184 and 185: 168 10 ppm 11-99 ppm 100-150 ppm 15
Page 186 and 187: 170 Table 5.4 Expected regional on-
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Page 190 and 191: 174 already observed over the past
Page 192 and 193: 176 approvals and endorsements give
Page 194 and 195: 178 refinery in Fujairah; Oman is c
Page 196 and 197: 180 is unclear, it is believed that
Page 198 and 199: 182 the timing of the project is ci
Page 200 and 201: 184 permanent closures. The effect
Page 202 and 203: 186 Box figure 2 Figure 2 Estimated
Page 204 and 205: 188 Returning to the ‘drama in th
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194 2 0 1990 In summary, current es
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196 - because the US crude oil logi
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198 As detailed in Box 6.2, viewed
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200 As a primary means to increase
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202 increase by (0.3 mb/d), while o
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204
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206 needed from refineries, even al
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208 demand growth and rising non-cr
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210 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.1 Global ga
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212 This long-term utilization leve
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214 may not necessarily mean low in
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216 Figure 7.4 Global capacity requ
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218 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 U
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220
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222 Figure 8.1 Figure 8.1 Cost of r
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224 billion US$(2011) 100 Direct in
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226
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228 Figure 9.1 Figure 9.1 Inter-reg
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230 0 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
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232 this report, the Keystone XL pr
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234 Coast. To the extent that eithe
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236 -25 US & Canada Latin America A
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238 US & Canada Latin America Figur
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240 Figure 9.9 NEW Figure 9.8 Net i
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242 advantages and high margins to
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244 great deal of effort goes into
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246 low-value refinery bottoms stre
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Footnotes
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250 21. OPEC Annual Statistical Bul
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Annex A
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API American Petroleum Institute AS
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OTC Over-the-counter OWEM OPEC’s
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OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM): def
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262 Antigua and Barbuda Guatemala A
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264 French Polynesia Solomon Island
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Annex C
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US & Canada United States of Americ
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Chad Sao Tome and Principe Comoros
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Asia-Pacific OECD Pacific Australia
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Major data sources
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Africa Oil & Gas Monitor American P
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International Oil Daily Internation
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World Health Organization Wood Mack
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