World Oil Outlook - Opec

• The Reference Case assumes higher oil prices compared to historical averages; and
• Declines in non-OECD intensities have increasingly had an impact on global
averages as their share of energy consumption increases.
Oil demand
Oil demand in the medium-term
It has already been documented in earlier Outlooks how the global financial crisis
and ‘Great Recession’ had significant implications for oil demand projections in the
short- and medium-term. Figure 1.18 shows how the medium-term projections to
2015 were revised downwards in the WOO 2009 as the recession unravelled and
GDP forecasts for 2009 were revised down. The next two WOOs (2010 and 2011)
took into account the extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus that were put in
place and considered a more positive view on how quickly a recovery would occur,
leading to upward revisions in medium-term oil demand prospects. This year, as discussed
already, there is growing concern about immediate prospects for economic
growth, particularly in the Euro-zone. For 2012, demand in this publication is already
820,000 b/d lower than in the WOO 2011.
Figure 1.18
World Oil Outlook projections for global Figure oil 1.18 demand in 2015
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
mb/d
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year of WOO
Figure 1.21-not used
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Chapter
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