World Oil Outlook - Opec

188
Returning to the ‘drama in three acts’, the industry has arguably moved well into Act
Two, with activity that is leading to both significant closures and changing downstream
ownership. To date, close to 5 mb/d of distillation capacity can be considered
permanently closed. However, the regional balances suggest that more is to be expect-
Figure 6.1
ed – or, as Peter Voser, the CEO of Shell, said: another “shake-out is still to happen”.
2.5
Required additional incremental refinery runs in Figure 6.3 are based on projected
incremental global demand from 2012 through 2016, net of incremental supply from
non-crudes that bypass the refining system. Against this, potential incremental refinery
crude runs (resulting from new projects) are based on assessed nameplate capacity additions
minus a factor representing expected maximum sustainable utilizations. 9 2.0
1.5
The
column of ‘potential projects minus closures’ takes into account the assessed capacity
closures that reduce the ability of refiners to process incremental barrels of crude oil.
1.0
In addition, the analysis incorporates the phasing of capacity additions and closures, to
arrive at the net additional capacity for each year, and allows for typical capacity utilization
0.5 rates to deliver the assessed effective potential for incremental crude runs.
If potential incremental crude runs based on projects (assuming no closures) are
0
compared with required crude runs based on demand, it is evident that new projects
Figure 6.3
Additional cumulative refinery crude Figure runs, 6.3required
and potential*
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
–1
mb/d
US &
Canada
Latin
America
Africa Europe FSU Middle
East
* Potential: based on expected distillation capacity expansion.
Required: based on projected demand increases.
Figure 6.5
2.5
tb/d
mb/d
Potential – based on projects
Potential – projects minus closures
Required – Reference Case
China Other
Asia
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Potential*
Potential including closures
3
2
1
0
100
90
80
70
60
50
10
8
6