World Oil Outlook - Opec

56
The medium-term oil demand outlook, therefore, reflects a corresponding
downward revision from last year’s report. As can be seen in Table 1.5, the Reference
Case now foresees demand reaching 92.9 mb/d by 2016, a downward revision of over
1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2011.
Table 1.5
Medium-term oil demand outlook in the Reference Case mb/d
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
OECD America 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7
OECD Europe 14.4 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6
OECD Asia Oceania 8.1 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4
OECD 46.3 46.1 46.0 45.9 45.8 45.7
Latin America 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Middle East & Africa 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8
India 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2
China 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5
Other Asia 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7
OPEC 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2
Developing countries 36.6 37.5 38.5 39.6 40.8 42.0
Russia 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5
Other Eurasia 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Eurasia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2
World 87.8 88.7 89.5 90.7 91.8 92.9
Over the period 2011–2016, OECD oil demand declines each year, having
peaked in 2005. Although demand in Eurasia is expected to continue to grow
slowly, the medium-term increase of 5.1 mb/d over the years 2011–2016 comes
essentially from developing countries, with 70% of that increase occurring in
developing Asia.
Oil demand in the long-term
Long-term oil demand prospects have been affected by several factors that are different
from the WOO 2011: