World Oil Outlook - Opec

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increase by (0.3 mb/d), while other products will account for the remaining balance
of 1 mb/d.
To shed further light on the impacts of continuing capacity additions on the
supply balances of refined products, the assessment of refinery projects was extended.
Figure 6.10 shows the results of comparing the potential additional regional output
of major product groups from firm projects against projected incremental regional
demand for the years 2011 and 2016. The results are presented as net surplus/deficit
of product groups by region and worldwide.
When looking at the level for ‘all products’, incremental output and incremental
demand essentially match. This contrasts from what was assessed in the previous two
years – namely, refining projects that significantly exceeded total incremental demand
growth. However, although there is, of course, some uncertainty and flexibility in the
product yields that result from any one project, the balances show a continuation of
projects that produce too much naphtha/gasoline and residual fuel, too little distillate
and, to a lesser degree, too few ‘other products’.
The data indicate, for example, an unchanged situation for middle distillates in
Europe and the US & Canada, as new projects broadly balance demand change. Conversely,
in these regions all three other product groups are projected to be in surplus.
Figure 6.10
Expected surplus/deficit of incremental Figure product 6.10 output from existing refining projects,
2011–2016
1.0
0.5
0
–0.5
–1.0
–1.5
mb/d
Gasoline/Naphtha
Middle distillates
World US &
Canada
Residual fuel
Other products
Europe Asia-
Pacific
Other regions
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
0