World Oil Outlook - Opec

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126 The Reference Case sees biofuels supply increase by close to 5 mb/d from 2010, to reach 6.6 mb/d by 2035 (Table 3.7). The future economics of second and third generation biofuels, however, represent a large degree of uncertainty as to what extent biofuels may contribute to supply. One key variable that may affect these developments is oil prices: major departures from the Reference Case assumption, either higher or lower, could result in relatively large impacts upon biofuels supply levels in the future. OPEC upstream investment OPEC Member Countries have continuously played a positive key role in satisfying the world’s energy needs, in supporting oil market stability, and investing along the whole oil supply chain in an adequate and timely manner. Even in the face of large uncertainties about future oil demand, OPEC Member Countries continue to invest heavily in exploration, development, refining and transport in order to maintain and expand supply capacities. This is a clear reflection of their objective to support stability in oil markets, as has been clearly stated in OPEC’s Statute and Long Term Strategy. As was indicated in Chapter 1, OPEC crude oil spare capacity is expected to rise to beyond 5 mb/d as early as 2013/2014. In 2011, total OPEC sustained capacity averaged over 34 mb/d, while the total supply averaged to 29.79 mb/d. This rising trend is expected to continue over the medium-term, especially given that the call on OPEC crude is foreseen to remain approximately flat. According to the latest list of upstream projects in OPEC’s database, Member Countries are undertaking or planning around 116 development projects during the five-year period 2012–2016. This corresponds to an estimated investment of about $270 billion, and demonstrates the scale of OPEC’s portfolio of projects. It is estimated, given Reference Case assumptions and projections, as well as the natural decline in existing fields, that total OPEC liquids capacity will rise by 5 mb/d over the period 2012–2016, although investment decisions and plans will obviously be influenced by various factors, such as the the global economic situation, policies and the price of oil. Accordingly, OPEC’s spare capacity will stay at healthy levels. It is important to stress, however, that given the nature of the industry, particularly in terms of the often long-lead times for projects and high upfront costs, striking the right balance for investments will continue to be a major challenge.
Chapter 4 Upstream challenges In looking ahead, there are many challenges for the oil industry, and it is clearly important to continually gain a better understanding as to how these might evolve. Clearly the economic environment is today particularly challenging and a source of major uncertainties for the future. How the global economy will evolve in the coming years is thus a key question, with huge impacts on the oil industry. There are oil price fluctuations – as discussed in Chapter One – and the role of speculation in this. There is clearly a convergence of views on the need to mitigate extreme volatility and dampen excessive speculation. The industry has also recently seen how quickly perspectives for energy supply can change. For example, the Fukushima disaster changed nuclear prospects in some regions, impacting in the short-term oil and gas markets, and changing country energy policies in the longer term; and shale oil and gas have rapidly reversed the decline of oil and gas production in the US, with dramatic consequences on gas, LNG, and coal trade and prices. Energy policies have also become increasingly far-reaching in their scope, with a number of countries and regions looking to significantly alter their energy mix in the medium- to long-term. In addition, skilled labour availability continues to be seen as a potential constraint to the expansion of the industry. In past years, this publication has repeatedly called for moves to address this. And there is also the pressing issue of the environment and climate change, and how this might impact the industry and future technological developments. In fact, when looking at technology, in general, it can perhaps be viewed as the source of the greatest uncertainty in terms of the long-term oil and energy outlook. This is not an exhaustive list of challenges, but it does underscore some of the uncertainties facing the industry. And this is further brought home when looking at how much investment is required. Investment needs in the petroleum industry are massive. For OPEC, and its Member Countries, offering spare capacity in a climate of uncertainty (over how 127 Chapter 4
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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