World Oil Outlook - Opec

Figure 6.1
Distillation capacity additions from Figure existing 6.1 projects, 2012–2016
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
mb/d
US &
Canada
Latin
America
Africa Europe FSU Middle
East
China Other
Asia
Figure 6.3
Brazil that are planned to process heavy domestic crude and create finished products
for export. tb/dFor
the countries of the FSU, there are again prospects that demand growth
will exceed 7 refinery expansions by 2016 – 0.2 mb/d versus 0.5 mb/d – which are driven
mainly by policies Potential designed – based on to projects encourage the exports of products rather than crude
6
Potential – projects minus closures
oil. Based on the Required above – Reference ‘balances’, Case it is clear that new refineries in the Middle East
could 5have
the biggest impact on inter-regional product movements, at least in the
medium-term.
4
3
In the case of the US & Canada, the prospect is for demand to decline by around
0.2 mb/d 2 in the medium-term, while crude distillation will rise by 0.5 mb/d. Moreover,
the current utilization rates in the US are relatively low, which, when combined
1
with growing local crude supplies, creates the potential for higher product exports
from the 0 region.
–1
Asia-Pacific
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Turning to the specifics of key refining projects in China, the implementation of
projects there is subject to approval Figure by 6.5 the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC). Moreover, the NDRC also regulates final retail prices for key
refined products, 6 which thus determines refining margins and profitability. Final
2.5
2.0
1.5
mb/d
Chapter
6
6
Potential*
Potential including closures
Required** 175
4
3
2
1
0
100
90
80
70
60
50
10
8
m
m
1
m