World Oil Outlook - Opec

In summary, global shale oil and gas resources seem to be significant enough to
play an important role in the future global energy supply. Their contribution in
the medium-term will continue to come only from North America. In the longer
term, however, modest contributions might also come from other parts of
the world. Shale gas and shale oil are also likely to play a role in OPEC Member
Countries.
expected to expand significantly, maturing production regions lead to a steady decline
in overall production, which, together with declines in the North Sea and Mexico, see
OECD supply start to fall already from the middle of this decade.
Declines are also expected in developing countries, though not as swift. Brazil is
anticipated to see increases in output for at least the next 10 years, and future declines
over the long-term projection period will only be gradual. Russia is seen in the Reference
Case to reach a plateau of between 10 and 11 mb/d. The Caspian region is the
one non-OPEC grouping that is thought to be able to sustain a gradual increase in
supply over the long-term.
Other liquids (excluding biofuels)
Turning to the long-term outlook for other liquids (excluding biofuels), the largest
supply increase in the Reference Case will come from Canadian oil sands, with supply
expected to rise by more than 4 mb/d over the years 2010–2035. Although oil
sands resources are substantial, the nature of the extraction and processing of the oil
suggests a long plateau of supply. Moreover, there are several question marks over the
environmental credentials of oil sands mining, which may limit long-term potential;
these include related greenhouse gas emissions, impacts upon wildlife, and effects
upon water availability and quality.
In terms of other sources of other liquids supply, CTLs are expected to witness
growth, particularly in regions with substantial coal resources. These include the US,
Australia and China, which together are expected to see an increase in liquids supply
from this source of around 1 mb/d over the period 2010-2035. GTLs are also seen
as possibly an increasingly important source of other liquids supply, especially where
cheap and plentiful supplies of natural gas exist, such as in the US, where supply could
rise to 300,000 b/d by 2035.
Altogether, supply from other liquids in the Reference Case, excluding biofuels,
increases by close to 7 mb/d in the long-term, reaching almost 9 mb/d by 2035
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