Demographic and Health Survey 2009-10 - Timor-Leste Ministry of ...

52 | Fertility
The percentage of women who reported being pregnant at the time of the survey is also
presented in Table 4.2. This percentage may be underreported since women may not be aware of a
pregnancy, especially at the very early stages, while some women who are early in their pregnancy
may not want to reveal that they are pregnant. Seven percent of women were pregnant at the time of
the survey. Urban women were more likely to be pregnant than rural women. Current pregnancy is
highest in Manufahi and Lautem. The proportion of women currently pregnant varies by women’s
education, but the pattern is unclear and is highest among women with more than secondary
education. The percentage currently pregnant ranges from 6 percent among women in the highest
wealth quintile to a high of 8 percent among women in the second wealth quintile.
4.3 FERTILITY TRENDS
Trends in fertility over time can also be examined by comparing age-specific fertility rates
from the TLDHS 2009-10 for successive five-year periods preceding the survey, as presented in Table
4.3. Because women age 50 and older were not interviewed in the survey, the rates for older age
groups become progressively more truncated for periods more distant from the survey date. For
example, rates cannot be calculated for women age 35-39 for the period 15 to 19 years before the
survey because these women would have been over age 50 at the time of the survey and therefore not
eligible to be interviewed.
Table 4.3 Trends in age-specific fertility rates
Age-specific fertility rates for five-year periods preceding the
survey, by mother’s age at the time of the birth, Timor-Leste
2009-10
Mother’s age at birth
Number of years preceding survey
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19
15-19 54 75 80 85
20-24 224 271 251 226
25-29 284 313 295 273
30-34 257 294 270 [274]
35-39 200 230 [238]
40-44 97 [165]
45-49 [48]
Note: Age-specific fertility rates are per 1,000 women.
Estimates in brackets are truncated. Rates exclude the month of
interview.
Table 4.3 shows that the ASFRs in the 0 to 4 years before the survey for women age 20-34
(the peak childbearing years) are very similar to what they were in the 15 to 19 years before the
survey and mirror somewhat the pattern seen in Table 4.2. The results also show that fertility over the
past two decades has dropped uniformly only among women age 15-19 and 35-39. Among women
age 20-24, fertility increased substantially from the period 15 to 19 years before the survey to the
period 5 to 9 years before the survey, with the ASFR in the most recent five years similar to what it
was two decades ago. A similar trend is seen among women age 25-29, with fertility in the most
recent five-year period slightly higher than what it was two decades ago. An increase in fertility is
also observed among women age 30-34 in the 5 to 9 years before the survey from the ASFR observed
10 to 14 years ago. The marked increase in fertility, particularly in the 5-9 years before the survey,
which corresponds to the years 1999-2000 to 2003-04, can be attributed to the virtual collapse of the
overall health system, and particularly the family planning program, following the struggle for
independence from Indonesia and the ensuing chaos.
Table 4.4 and Figure 4.2 compare fertility trends seen in the 2009-10 data with estimates
obtained in earlier surveys conducted in the country. The TFR estimated from the 2003 DHS is 7.8
children per woman. It is unclear if this estimate is based on a denominator that adjusts for the fact
that the survey only interviewed ever-married women. If it did not, then it is likely that the estimate of
7.8 may be higher than what it would have been, and the 2-child decline in fertility between the two
surveys may in fact be less. Nevertheless, it is important to point out that the trend in ASFRs