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Demographic and Health Survey 2009-10 - Timor-Leste Ministry of ...

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calculated in the 2003 DHS follows closely the trend in the ASFRs found in the TLDHS <strong>and</strong><br />

corroborates the findings <strong>of</strong> the spike in TFR in the period immediately following the withdrawal <strong>of</strong><br />

Indonesia. The 2002 MICS survey provides an indirect measure <strong>of</strong> TFR at 7.4 children per woman in<br />

the 12 months preceding the survey. This is high compared with the 1997 IDHS, in which the TFR<br />

was estimated at 4.4 children per woman among all women.<br />

<strong>10</strong><br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

Table 4.4 Trends in fertility<br />

Age-specific fertility rates (per 1,000 women) <strong>and</strong> total fertility rates (TFR), <strong>Timor</strong>-<br />

<strong>Leste</strong> <strong>2009</strong>-<strong>10</strong><br />

Age group<br />

<strong>2009</strong>-<strong>10</strong><br />

TLDHS<br />

(2007-<strong>2009</strong>)<br />

2003 DHS a<br />

(2001-2003)<br />

2002 MICS b<br />

(2001-2002)<br />

1997 IDHS c<br />

(1995-1997)<br />

15-19 51 78 80 u<br />

20-24 221 322 319 u<br />

25-29 276 362 355 u<br />

30-34 254 329 290 u<br />

35-39 197 260 245 u<br />

40.44 89 138 118 u<br />

45-49 47 66 68 u<br />

TFR 5.7 7.8 7.4 4.4<br />

u = unavailable<br />

a MOH et al., 2004 p. 70<br />

b UNICEF, 2003 p. 72. Based on indirect estimates for the 12 months preceding<br />

the survey.<br />

c CBS, NFPCB, MOH, <strong>and</strong> Macro International, 1998 p. 39. ASFRs for <strong>Timor</strong>-<br />

<strong>Leste</strong> are not published in this report.<br />

Figure 4.2 Trends in Total Fertility Rates 1995-20<strong>10</strong><br />

Children per woman<br />

4.4<br />

1995-1997<br />

(1997 IDHS)<br />

7.4<br />

2001-2002<br />

(2002 MICS)<br />

<strong>Survey</strong><br />

7.8<br />

2001-2003<br />

(2003 DHS)<br />

5.7<br />

2007-<strong>2009</strong><br />

(<strong>2009</strong>-<strong>10</strong> TLDHS)<br />

<strong>Timor</strong>-<strong>Leste</strong> <strong>2009</strong>-<strong>10</strong><br />

Many factors may have contributed to the decline in fertility in the most recent five-year<br />

period. The relative political stability following the 1999 <strong>and</strong> 2006 crises <strong>and</strong> the return <strong>of</strong> people<br />

from remote rural areas to semi-urban or urban areas may have exposed them to social <strong>and</strong> economic<br />

influences encouraging smaller families. Furthermore, exposure to family planning messages through<br />

the mass media, <strong>and</strong> wider <strong>and</strong> easier access to modern family planning methods not previously<br />

available in <strong>Timor</strong>-<strong>Leste</strong> may also have had an impact.<br />

Fertility | 53

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