The 21st Century climate challenge

have been at least 14% lower (table 2.3)—afigure that translates into 11 million fewerpeople below the poverty line. 34The human impacts of current climateshocks provide a widely ignored backdrop forunderstanding the human development implicationsof climate change. Malnutrition levelsrise and people get locked into poverty traps.If climate change scenarios predicting morefrequent and more intense droughts and floodsare correct, the consequences could be large andrapid reversals in human development in thecountries affected.Asset erosion—physical capitalClimate shocks can have devastatingconsequences for household assets andsavings. Assets such as live animals representsomething more than a safety net for copingwith climate shocks. They provide people witha productive resource, nutrition, collateral forcredit, and a source of income to meet healthand education costs, while also providingTable 2.3 The impact of drought shocks in EthiopiaPeople in poverty (%)Observed poverty 47.3Predicted poverty with no drought shocks 33.1Predicted poverty with no shocks of any kind 29.4Source: Dercon 2004.security in the event of crop failure. Theirloss increases future vulnerability.Climate shocks create a distinctive threat tocoping strategies. Unlike, say, ill-health, manyclimate shocks are covariate: that is, they affectentire communities. If all affected householdssell their assets at the same time in order to protectconsumption, asset prices can be expectedto fall. The resulting loss of value can rapidly andseverely undermine coping strategies, reinforcingwider inequalities in the process.Research on the 1999/2000 drought inEthiopia illustrates this point. The disasterbegan with a failure of the short or belg rains,2Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal worldBox 2.4Drought and food insecurity in NigerNiger is one of the poorest countries in the world. It ranks closeto bottom of the HDI, with a life expectancy of nearly 56 years, 40percent of children having low weight for their age in an averageyear, and more than one in fi ve children dying before their fi fthbirthday. Vulnerability to climate shocks in Niger is linked to severalfactors, including widespread poverty, high levels of malnutrition,precarious food security in ‘normal’ years, limited health coverageand agricultural production systems that have to cope with uncertainrainfall. During 2004 and 2005 the implications of these underlyingvulnerabilities were powerfully demonstrated by a climate shock,with an early end to rains and widespread locust damage.Agricultural production was immediately affected. Output fellsharply, creating a cereals defi cit of 223,000 tonnes. Prices ofsorghum and millet rose 80 percent above the 5-year average.In addition to high cereal prices, deteriorating livestockconditions deprived household of a key source of income andrisk insurance. The loss of pasture and nearly 40 percent of thefodder crop, along with rising animal feed prices and ‘distresssales’, pushed down livestock prices, depriving householdsof a key source of income and risk insurance. With vulnerablehouseholds trying to sell under-nourished animals for incometo buy cereals, the drop in prices adversely affected their foodsecurity and terms of trade.By the middle of 2005 around 56 zones across the country werefacing food security risks. Some 2.5 million people—around a fifthof the country’s population—required emergency food assistance.Twelve zones in regions such as Maradi, Tahou and Zinder werecategorized as ‘extremely critical’, meaning that people werereducing the number of meals eaten each day, consuming wild rootsand berries, and selling female cattle and production equipment.The crisis in agriculture led to severe human costs, including:• Migration to neighbouring countries and less critically affectedzones.• In 2005 Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) re-reported anacute malnutrition rate of 19 percent among children aged6–59 months in Maradi and Tahoua, representing a signifi cantdeterioration over average levels. MSF also reported a fourfoldincrease in the number of children suffering from severemalnutrition in therapeutic feeding centres.• USAID survey team reported women spending entire dayscollecting anza, a wild food.In some respects, Niger’s low level of human developmentmakes the country an extreme case. However, developments during2005 demonstrated in stark fashion the mechanisms through whichincreased climate-related risk can disrupt coping strategies andcreate extensive vulnerabilities.Source: Chen and Meisel 2006; Mousseau and Mittal 2006; MSF 2005; Seck 2007a.HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 85