The 21st Century climate challenge

eaffirmed this commitment by adopting apolicy package to achieve the target. 4Target setting has also emerged as an issueon the agenda of the G8. At their 2007 summit,the G8 leaders accepted in principle the need forurgent and concerted action to avoid dangerousclimate change. No formal targets were adopted.However, the summit agreed to “consider seriously”decisions made by Canada, the EuropeanUnion and Japan to set a level of ambition aimedat halving global emissions by 2050. 5Target setting from below in theUnited StatesThe United States currently lacks a nationaltarget for overall emission reductions. Underthe 2002 Global Climate Change Initiative(GCCI), the Federal Government set a nationalgoal for reducing greenhouse gas emissionsintensity, as measured by the ratio of greenhousegas emissions to GDP. However, the absenceof a national emission reduction goal has notprevented the emergence of a range of targetsettinginitiatives, with states and cities settingout quantitative goals of their own. Prominentexamples include:• State initiatives. With the passage of the 2006Global Warming Solutions Act, Californiahas set an enforceable target of achieving1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by2020, with an 80 percent reduction on 1990levels by 2050 (box 3.1). Concerns thatthese targets will necessarily compromisecompetitiveness and employment are notwell supported by the evidence. Modellingwork has found that new incentives createdby the state’s cap on emissions could createan additional US$59 billion in income and20,000 new jobs by 2020. 6 In total, thereare now 17 states across the United Stateswith emissions targets. 7• Regional initiatives. The Regional GreenhouseGas Initiative (RGGI) established in2005 is the first mandatory cap-and-tradeprogramme in the United States, settinglimits on emissions from power plants. Itnow extends to 10 states. 8 The target is tocap emissions at current levels from 2009 to2015 and then to reduce them by 10 percentby 2019. In 2007, the creation of the WesternRegional Climate Action Initiative—involvingArizona, California, New Mexico,Oregon, Utah and Washington—expandedthe reach of regional initiatives. TheCanadian provinces of British Columbiaand Manitoba joined in 2007, turning itinto an international partnership. By 2009,these states will set a regional emissionstarget and devise market-based programmesto achieve them. 9• City initiatives. Cities are also setting emissionreduction targets. In total, around 522mayors, representing 65 million Americans,are aiming to reach what would have beenthe United States Kyoto target of a 7 percentreduction below 1990 levels by 2012. 10 NewYork has introduced caps on emissions fromthe city’s power stations. The New York CityGovernment has also passed legislation thatrequires a city-wide inventory of greenhousegas emissions and a city-wide goal of 7 percentreductions below 1990 levels by 2020.While the reductions are voluntary forthe private sector, the City Government iscommitted to 30 percent emissions cuts. 11These initiatives have to be placed incontext. If California were a country, it wouldbe the world’s fourteenth largest source of CO 2emissions—that is why its leadership is of globalimportance. However, the bulk of emissionsstill originate in states with no planned capson emissions: California and the RGGI statestogether account for around 20 percent ofUnited States’ greenhouse gas emissions. Justas greenhouse gases from India and the UnitedStates mix in the Earth’s atmosphere, so a tonneof CO 2from San Francisco has the same impactas a tonne from Houston. In the absence ofbinding Federal targets, emission reductionsin some states can be swamped by increasesin others. Even so, state-level and regionalgovernment initiatives have created a politicalimpetus towards the establishment of emissionceilings at the Federal level.That impetus is reflected in the UnitedStates Congress. Recent years have witnesseda steady proliferation in proposed legislationaimed at setting targets for future emissions ofAt their 2007 summit, the G8leaders accepted in principlethe need for urgent andconcerted action to avoiddangerous climate change3Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigationHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 115