The 21st Century climate challenge

unable to build productive assets, educate theirchildren, improve their health and nutritionand increase income over time. 43 People abovethat threshold are able to manage risks in waysthat do not lead to downward cycles of povertyand vulnerability. People below it are unable toreach the critical point beyond which they canescape the gravitational pull of poverty.Analysis of income poverty traps has drawnattention to the processes by which deprivationis transmitted through time. By the same token,it has underplayed the importance of humancapabilities—the wider set of attributes thatdetermine the choices open to people. Shiftingthe focus towards capability does not meanignoring the role of income. Low income isclearly a major cause of human deprivation.However, limited income is not the only thingthat holds back the development of capabilities.Exclusion from opportunities for basic education,health and nutrition are sources of capabilitydeprivation. In turn, these are linked to lackof progress in other dimensions, includingthe ability of people to participate in decisionmakingand to assert their human rights.Like poverty traps, low human developmenttraps occur when people are unable to pass athreshold beyond which they can engineer avirtuous circle of capability expansion. Climateshocks are among the many external factorsthat sustain such traps over time. They interactwith other events—ill-health, unemployment,conflict and disruptions in markets. Whilethese are important, climate shocks are amongthe most potent forces sustaining low humandevelopment traps.Research carried out for this Report providesevidence of low human development trapsin operation. In order to track the impact ofclimate shocks across time in the lives of thoseaffected, we developed an econometric modelto explore microlevel household survey data(Technical Note 2). We looked at specific humandevelopment outcomes associated with anidentified climate shock. What difference does itmake to the nutritional status of children if theywere born during a drought? Using our modelwe addressed that question for several countriesthat face recurrent droughts. The resultsdemonstrate the damaging impact of droughton the life chances of affected children:• In Ethiopia, children aged five or less are36 percent more likely to be malnourishedand 41 percent more likely to be stunted ifthey were born during a drought year andaffected by it. This translates into some2 million ‘additional’ malnourished children.• For Kenya, being born in a drought yearincreases the likelihood of children beingmalnourished by 50 percent.• In Niger, children aged two or under whowere born during a drought year and wereaffected by it are 72 percent more likely tobe stunted, pointing to the rapid conversionof droughts into severe nutritional deficits.These findings have important implicationsin the context of climate change. Most obviously,they demonstrate that the inability ofpoor households to cope with ‘current’ climateshocks is already a major source of humancapability erosion. Malnutrition is not an afflictionthat is shaken off when the rains returnor the flood waters recede. It creates cycles ofdisadvantage that children will carry with themthroughout their lives. Indian women bornduring a drought or a flood in the 1970s were19 percent less likely to ever attend primaryschool, when compared with women the sameage who were not affected by natural disasters.The incremental risks associated with climatechange have the potential to reinforce thesecycles of disadvantage.We stress the word ‘potential’. Not everydrought is the prelude to famine, malnutritionor educational privation. And not every climateshock gives rise to the distress sale of assets,long-run increases in vulnerability or the spreadof low human development traps. This is an areain which public policies and public institutionsmake a difference. Governments can play a criticalrole in creating mechanisms that build resilience,support pro-poor risk management and reducevulnerability. Policies in these areas can create anenabling environment for human development.With climate change, international cooperationon adaptation is a key condition for scaling-upthese policies to meet incremental risks—anissue to which we return in chapter 4.Governments can playa critical role in creatingmechanisms that buildresilience, supportpro-poor risk managementand reduce vulnerability2Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal worldHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 89