The 21st Century climate challenge

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ences in national price levels. The GDP per capita(PPP US$) data for the HDI are providedby the World Bank (World Bank 2007b) for168 countries based on price data from the lastInternational Comparison Program (ICP surveysand GDP in local currency from nationalaccounts data. The last round of ICP surveysconducted between 1993 and 1996 covered118 countries. PPPs for these countries are estimateddirectly by extrapolating from the latestbenchmark results. For countries not includedin the ICP surveys, estimates are derivedthrough econometric regression. For countriesnot covered by the World Bank, PPP estimatesprovided by the Penn World Tables of the Universityof Pennsylvania (Heston, Summers andAten 2006) are used.Though much progress has been made inrecent decades, the current PPP data set suffersfrom several deficiencies, including lackof universal coverage, of timeliness of the dataand of uniformity in the quality of results fromdifferent regions and countries. Filling gaps incountry coverage with econometric regressionrequires strong assumptions, while extrapolationover time implies that the results becomeweaker as the distance lengthens between thereference survey year and the current year.The importance of PPPs in economic analysisunderlines the need for improvement in PPPdata. A new Millennium Round of the ICP hasbeen launched and promises much improvedPPP data for economic policy analysis. First resultsare expected to be published in late 2007or early 2008. For details on the ICP and thePPP methodology, see the ICP website at www.worldbank.org/data/icp.Comparisons over time and acrosseditions of the ReportThe HDI is an important tool for monitoringlong-term trends in human development. Tofacilitate trend analyses across countries, theHDI is calculated at five-year intervals for theperiod 1975–2005. These estimates, presentedin Table 2, are based on a consistent methodologyand on comparable trend data availablewhen the Report is prepared.As international data agencies continuallyimprove their data series, including updatinghistorical data periodically, the year to yearchanges in the HDI values and rankings acrosseditions of the Human Development Reportoften reflect revisions to data—both specificto a country and relative to other countries—rather than real changes in a country. In addition,occasional changes in country coveragecould also affect the HDI ranking of a country,even when consistent methodology is usedto calculate the HDI. As a result, a country’sHDI rank could drop considerably betweentwo consecutive Reports. But when comparable,revised data are used to reconstruct theHDI for recent years, the HDI rank and valuemay actually show an improvement.For these reasons HDI trend analysisshould not be based on data from different editionsof the Report. Table 2 provides up-to-dateHDI trend data based on consistent data andmethodology.HDI for high human developmentcountriesThe HDI in this Report is constructed to comparecountry achievements across the mostbasic dimensions of human development.Thus, the indicators chosen are not necessarilythose that best differentiate between richcountries. The indicators currently used in theindex yield very small differences among thetop HDI countries, and thus the top of theHDI ranking often reflects only very smalldifferences in these underlying indicators.For these high-income countries, an alternativeindex—the human poverty index (shownin Table 4)—can better reflect the extent ofhuman deprivation that still exists among thepopulations of these countries and can help directthe focus of public policies.For further discussions on the use and limitationsof the HDI and its component indicators,see http://hdr.undp.org/statistics.HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 227
Acronyms and abbreviationsCDIACCISCO 2CO 2eDACDHSDOTSEM-DATFAOGDIGDPGEMGERGNIGtHDIHDROHIV/AIDSHPI-1HPI-2IALSICPSICSEIDMCIEAIISSILOILOLEXIPUISCEDCarbon Dioxide Information Analysis CenterCommonwealth of Independent StatesCarbon dioxideCarbon dioxide equivalentDevelopment Assistance Committee(of OECD)Demographic and Health SurveyDirectly Observed Treatment Short courses(method of detection and treatment oftuberculosis)Emergency disasters databaseFood and Agriculture OrganizationGender-related development indexGross domestic productGender empowerment measureGross enrolment ratioGross national incomeGigatonne (one billion tonnes)Human development indexHuman Development Report OfficeHuman Immunodeficiency Virus/AcquiredImmune Deficiency SyndromeHuman poverty index (for developingcountries)Human poverty index (for OECD countries,Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS)International Adult Literacy SurveyInternational Centre for Prison StudiesInternational Classification of Status inEmploymentInternal Displacement Monitoring CentreInternational Energy AgencyInternational Institute for Strategic StudiesInternational Labour OrganizationILO database on International LabourStandardsInter-Parliamentary UnionInternational Standard Classification ofEducationISCO International Standard Classification ofOccupationsISICInternational Standard IndustrialClassificationITUInternational Telecommunication UnionLISLuxembourg Income StudiesMDG Millennium Development GoalsMICS Multiple Indicator Cluster SurveyMtMegatonne (one million tonnes)ODAOfficial development assistanceOECD Organization for Economic Co-operation andDevelopmentPPPPurchasing power parityR&D Research and developmentSARSpecial Administrative Region (of China)SIPRI Stockholm International Peace ResearchInstituteSITC Standard International Trade ClassificationTFYR The former Yugoslav Republic (of Macedonia)UNUnited NationsUNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme onHIV/AIDSUNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopmentUNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and CrimeUNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific andCultural OrganizationUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNFPA United Nations Population FundUNHCR Office of the United Nations HighCommissioner for RefugeesUNICEF United Nations Children’s FundUN-ORHLLS United Nations Office of the HighRepresentative for the Least DevelopedCountries, Landlocked Developing Countriesand Small Island Developing StatesWHO World Health OrganizationWIPO World Intellectual Property Organization228 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008
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Copyright © 2007by the United Nati
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ForewordWhat we do today about clim
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AcknowledgementsThis Report could n
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Jean-Robert Moret, Koos Neefjes, Ii
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From climate shocks today to depriv
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Figures1.1 Rising CO 2emissions are
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… while preserving it for future
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Climate change providesa potent rem
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The real choice facingpolitical lea
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The world’s poor andfuture genera
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Current investment patternsare putt
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Avoiding the unprecedentedthreats p
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The rapid development anddeployment
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Support for the MDGsprovides anothe
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For the current generation,the chal
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• Create a Climate Change Mitigat
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“One generation plants a tree; th
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1The 21 st Century climate challeng
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1Special contributionClimate policy
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1 The 21 st Century climate challen
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1Box 1.3Developed countries have fa
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Climate shocks:risk and vulnerabili
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CHAPTER2Climateshocks: risk andvuln
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in order to cast a light on future
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Box 2.1Under-reporting climate disa
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Box 2.2The global insurance industr
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Box 2.3Hurricane Katrina—the soci
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human rights of the Inuit. The aim
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have been at least 14% lower (table
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intensify these pressures. In Ethio
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unable to build productive assets,
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Climate modelling exercises point t
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Box 2.7Climate change in Malawi—m
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prominently in low human developmen
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Box 2.8Climate change and China’s
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Box 2.9Melting glaciers and retreat
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enign climate change scenarios poin
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Alaska to Siberia has increased by
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donors to invest in rehabilitation.
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more likely. Evidence from the past
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“We shall require a substantially
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3Avoiding dangerous climate change:
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Table 3.1Emission reduction targets
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Box 3.1Leadership by example in car
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Box 3.2Targets and outcomes diverge
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Box 3.3The United Kingdom's climate
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Box 3.5Reducing carbon intensity in
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Box 3.7Renewable energy in Germany
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Box 3.9Palm oil and biofuel develop
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Box 3.11Decarbonizing growth in Ind
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4Adapting to the inevitable:nationa
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CHAPTER4Adapting to the inevitable:
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Mitigation is one part of a twin st
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structures for adaptation planning.
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national climate change projections
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Adjusted for country context, these
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training and support, to 11 regiona
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Page 204 and 205: vulnerable ecosystems. Actual spend
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Page 208 and 209: countries. 71 The figures are based
Page 210 and 211: adaptation will require a high leve
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Page 214 and 215: NotesChapter 11 Diamond 2005.2 Kenn
Page 216 and 217: oceans, which cover 70 percent of t
Page 218 and 219: 69 Gurría and Manning 2007.70 OCHA
Page 220 and 221: Canales Davila, Caridad and Alberto
Page 222 and 223: ———. 2006a. “Building a Glo
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Page 226 and 227: OECD Development Assistance Committ
Page 228 and 229: Landau, J.P. 2004. “Rapport à Mo
Page 230 and 231: Regional Hunger and Vulnerability P
Page 232 and 233: UNDP (United Nations Development Pr
Page 236 and 237: Readers guide and notes to tablesHu
Page 238 and 239: sification, which refers only to th
Page 240 and 241: Note to Table 1: about this year’
Page 244 and 245: TABLE1Monitoringhuman development:
Page 246 and 247: TABLE1HDI rank aHumandevelopmentind
Page 248 and 249: TABLE1aMonitoring human development
Page 250 and 251: TABLE2HDI rank 1975 1980 1985 1990
Page 252 and 253: TABLE2HDI rank 1975 1980 1985 1990
Page 254 and 255: TABLE3HDI rankHuman povertyindex (H
Page 256 and 257: TABLE4Monitoring human development:
Page 258 and 259: TABLE5.. . to lead a long and healt
Page 260 and 261: TABLE5HDI rankTotal population(mill
Page 264 and 265: TABLE6HDI rankPublic(% of GDP)Healt
Page 266 and 267: TABLE7. . . to lead a long and heal
Page 268 and 269: TABLE7HDI rankMDGPopulation usingim
Page 274 and 275: TABLE9HDI rankHIVprevalence a(% age
Page 276 and 277: TABLE10.. . to lead a long and heal
Page 278 and 279: TABLE10HDI rankLife expectancy at b
Page 280 and 281: TABLE11. . . to acquire knowledge .
Page 282 and 283: TABLE11Public expenditure on educat
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Page 286 and 287: TABLE12HDI rankAdult literacy rate(
Page 288 and 289: TABLE13. . . to acquire knowledge .
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TABLE14.. . to have access to the r
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TABLE14HDI rankUS$ billions2005GDPG
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TABLE15HDI rankSurvey yearMDGShare
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TABLE16HDI rankImports of goodsand
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TABLE18HDI rankOfficial development
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TABLE18HDI rankOfficial development
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TABLE19HDI rankPublicexpenditureon
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TABLE19Publicexpenditureon health(%
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TABLE21Unemployedpeople(thousands)E
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TABLE22HDI rankElectricity consumpt
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TABLE22Electricity consumptionper c
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TABLE23Share of TPES aFossil fuels
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TABLE23Share of TPES aFossil fuels
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TABLE24HDI rankTotal(Mt CO 2)Annual
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TABLE24Total(Mt CO 2)Annualchange(%
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TABLE25HDI rankCartagenaProtocol on
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TABLE25HDI rankCartagenaProtocol on
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TABLE26HDI rankInternallydisplacedp
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TABLE26Conventional arms transfers
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TABLE27HDI rank2000-04 c 2007 d 200
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TABLE27HDI rank2000-04 c 2007 d 200
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TABLE28HDI rankGender-relateddevelo
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TABLE28Gender-relateddevelopmentind
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TABLE29HDI rankGender empowerment m
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TABLE29MDG Female legislators, Fema
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TABLE30HDI rankAdult literacy aFema
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TABLE30Adult literacy aMDGYouth lit
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TABLE31HDI rankFemale economic acti
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TABLE31HDI rankFemale economic acti
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TABLE33.. . and achieving equality
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TABLE33Year women received right aY
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TABLE34Humanand labour rights instr
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TABLE34HDI rankInternationalConvent
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TABLE35Humanand labour rights instr
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TABLE35HDI rankFreedom of associati
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TECHNICAL NOTE 1Calculating the hum
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HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008
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Calculating the GDI (continued)Seco
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Selected readingsAnand, Sudhir, and
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under the age of five countries tha
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Earned income (PPP US$), estimated
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individual or household. The Gini i
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problems of under reporting and mis
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Unemployment Refers to all people a
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Statec. 2006. Correspondence on gro
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Countries in the income aggregatesH
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Developing countries in the regiona
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Indicator table Indicator Indicator
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Indicator table Indicator Indicator
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Index to Millennium Development Goa
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The 21st Century climate challenge

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