The 21st Century climate challenge

These R&D patterns can be traced to avariety of factors. The power sector, in particular,is characterized by large central power plantsdominated by a small number of suppliers, withrestricted competition for market share. Heavysubsidies to fossil fuel-based power and nuclearenergy have created powerful disincentives forinvestment in other areas such as renewableenergy. The end result is that the energy sector hasbeen characterized by a slow pace of innovation,with many of the core technologies for coal and gaspower generation now over three decades old.‘Picking winners’ in coalDevelopments in the coal sector demonstrate boththe potential for technological breakthroughsin climate change mitigation and the slow paceof progress. There is currently around 1200GigaWatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacityworldwide accounting for 40 percent of theworld’s electricity generation and CO 2emissions.With natural gas prices rising and coal reserveswidely disbursed across the world, the share ofcoal in world energy generation is likely to riseover time. Coal-fired power generation couldbe the driver that takes the world beyond thethreshold of dangerous climate change. However,it also provides an opportunity.Coal-fired power plants vary widely in theirthermal efficiency. 108 Increased efficiency, whichis largely a function of technology, means thatplants generate more power with less coal—andwith fewer emissions. The most efficient plantstoday use super-critical technologies that haveattained efficiency levels of around 45 percent.During the 1990s, new Integrated GasificationCombined Cycle (IGCC) technologiesemerged. These are able to burn synthetic gasproduced from coal or another fuel and to cleangas emissions. Supported by public funding inthe European Union and the United States,five demonstration plants were constructedin the 1990s. These plants have attainedlevels of thermal efficiency comparable to thebest conventional plants, with high levels ofenvironmental performance. 109What is the link between IGCC plants andclimate change mitigation? The real potentialbreakthrough technology for coal is a processknown as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).Using CCS technology, it is possible to separatethe gas emitted when fossil fuels are burned,process it into liquefied or solid form, andtransport it by ship or pipeline to a location—below the sea-bed, into disused coal mines,depleted oil wells, or other locations—whereit can be stored. Applied to coal plants, CCStechnology offers the potential for near-zeroCO 2emissions. In theory, any conventional coalplant can be retrofitted with CCS technology.In practice, IGCC plants are technologically themost adaptable to CCS, and by far the lowestcost option. 110No single technology offers a magicbullet for climate change mitigation, and‘picking winners’ is a hazardous affair. Evenso, CCS is widely acknowledged to be thebest-bet for stringent mitigation in coal-firedpower generation. Large-scale developmentand deployment of CCS could reconcile theexpanding use of coal with a sustainable carbonbudget. If successful, it could take the carbonout of electricity generation, not just in powerstations but also from other carbon-intensivesites of production such as cement factories andpetrochemical facilities.Demonstration plants operated throughprivate–public partnerships in the EuropeanUnion and the United States have shown thefeasibility of CCS technology, though somechallenges and uncertainties remain. 111 Forexample, the storage of CO 2beneath sea-bedsis the subject of international conventions andthere are safety concerns about the potentialfor leaks. Encouraging as the demonstrationproject results have been, the current effort fallsfar short of what is needed. CCS technology isprojected to come on-stream very slowly in theyears ahead. With planned rates of deployment,there will be just 11 CCS plants in operationby 2015. The upshot of this late arrival is thatthe plants will collectively save only around 15Mt CO 2in emissions, or 0.2 percent of totalcoal-fired power emissions. 112 At this rate, oneof the key technologies in the battle againstglobal warming will arrive on the battlefieldfar too late to help the world avoid dangerousclimate change.The real potentialbreakthrough technology forcoal is a process known asCarbon Capture and Storage3Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigationHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 145