The 21st Century climate challenge

destruction offered a perversely predictablestability. With climate change, by contrast,doing nothing offers a guaranteed route toa further build-up greenhouse gases, and tomutually assured destruction of human developmentpotential.The third important dimension of theclimate change challenge is its global scale. TheEarth’s atmosphere does not differentiate greenhousegases by country of origin. One tonne ofgreenhouse gases from China carries the sameweight as one tonne of greenhouse gases fromthe United States—and one country’s emissionsare another country’s climate change problem. Itfollows that no one country can win the battleagainst climate change acting alone. Collectiveaction is not an option but an imperative. WhenBenjamin Franklin signed the American Declarationof Independence in 1776, he is said to havecommented: “We must all hang together, ormost assuredly, we shall all hang separately.” Inour unequal world, some people—notably poorpeople—might hang sooner than others in theevent of a failure to develop collective solutions.But ultimately, this is a preventable crisis thatthreatens all people and all countries. We toohave the choice between hanging together andforging collective solutions to a shared problem,or hanging separately.Seizing the moment—2012 and beyondConfronted with a problem as daunting asclimate change, resigned pessimism mightseem a justified response. However, resignedpessimism is a luxury that the world’s poorand future generations cannot afford—andthere is an alternative.There is cause for optimism. Five yearsago, the world was still engaged in debatingwhether or not climate change was taking place,and whether or not it was human-induced.Climate change scepticism was a flourishingindustry. Today, the debate is over and climatescepticism is an increasingly fringe activity. Thefourth assessment review of the InternationalPanel on Climate Change has established anoverwhelming scientific consensus that climatechange is both real and man-made. Almostall governments are part of that consensus.Following the publication of the Stern Reviewon The Economics of Climate Change, mostgovernments also accept that solutions to climatechange are affordable—more affordablethan the costs of inaction.Political momentum is also gatheringpace. Many governments are setting boldtargets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.Climate change mitigation has now registeredfirmly on the agenda of the Group of Eight(G8) industrialized nations. And dialoguebetween developed and developing countriesis strengthening.All of this is positive news. Practical outcomesare less impressive. While governmentsmay recognize the realities of global warming,political action continues to fall far short of theminimum needed to resolve the climate changeproblem. The gap between scientific evidenceand political response remains large. In thedeveloped world, some countries have yet toestablish ambitious targets for cutting greenhousegas emissions. Others have set ambitioustargets without putting in place the energypolicy reforms needed to achieve them. Thedeeper problem is that the world lacks a clear,credible and long-term multilateral frameworkthat charts a course for avoiding dangerousclimate change—a course that spans the dividebetween political cycles and carbon cycles.With the expiry of the current commitmentperiod of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, the internationalcommunity has an opportunity to putthat framework in place. Seizing that opportunitywill require bold leadership. Missing it willpush the world further on the route to dangerousclimate change.Developed countries have to take thelead. They carry the burden of historic responsibilityfor the climate change problem.And they have the financial resources andtechnological capabilities to initiate deep andearly cuts in emissions. Putting a price oncarbon through taxation or cap-and-tradesystems is the starting point. But marketpricing alone will not be enough. The developmentof regulatory systems and public–privatepartnerships for a low-carbon transition arealso priorities.No one country can winthe battle against climatechange acting alone.Collective action is not anoption but an imperativeHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 5