The 21st Century climate challenge

2Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal worldTable 2.1Kenyan districtsDrought-related food emergencies and humandevelopment are closely linked in KenyaHuman Development Index value2005Districts suffering food emergency(November 2005–October 2006)Garissa 0.267Isiolo 0.580Mandera 0.310Masrabit 0.411Mwingi 0.501Samburu 0.347Turkana 0.172Wajir 0.256OthersMombassa 0.769Nairobi 0.773Kenya national average 0.532Source: UNDP 2006a; USAID FEWS NET 2007.One recent quantitative assessment ofthe human impacts of disasters has foundthat “countries with high levels of incomeinequality experience the effects of climatedisasters more profoundly than more equalsocieties”. 21 Average levels of human developmentcan obscure high levels of deprivation.Guatemala, for example, is a medium humandevelopment country marked by large socialdisparities between indigenous and nonindigenouspeople. Malnutrition amongindigenous people is twice as high as fornon-indigenous people. When HurricaneStan swept across the Western Highlands ofGuatemala in 2005 its impact was felt mostheavily by indigenous people, the majorityof them subsistence farmers or agriculturallabourers. Losses of basic grains, the depletionof food reserves and the collapse of employmentopportunities magnified already severelevels of deprivation, with inequality actingas a barrier to early recovery. 22 Disparities inhuman development also expose vulnerablepopulations to climate risks in some of theworld’s richest countries. When HurricaneKatrina hit New Orleans, some of America’spoorest communities were affected.Recovery was hampered by deep underlyinginequalities (box 2.3).• Lack of climate-defence infrastructure.Infrastructural disparities help to explainwhy similar climate impacts producevery different outcomes. The elaboratesystem of dykes in the Netherlands actsas a powerful buffer between risk andvulnerability. Flood defence systems, waterinfrastructure and early warning systems allreduce vulnerability. Japan faces a higherexposure to risks associated with cyclonesand flooding than the Philippines. Yetbetween 2000 and 2004, average fatalitiesamounted to 711 in the Philippines andonly 66 in Japan. 23• Limited access to insurance. Insurance canplay an important role in enabling peopleto manage climate risks without havingto reduce consumption or run down theirassets. Private markets and public policycan play a role. Households in rich countrieshave access to private insurance to protectthemselves against climate-related losses.Most poor households in developingcountries do not. Social insurance is anotherbuffer against vulnerability. It enables peopleto cope with risks without eroding longtermopportunities for human development.It can provide for people in old age, affordFigure 2.4Social insurance provision isfar greater in rich countriesSocial insurance spending (% of GDP)14121086420Sub Saharan AfricaSource: World Bank 2006g.South AsiaMiddle East and North AfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanEast Asia and the PacificEurope and Central AsiaOECD80 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008