The 21st Century climate challenge

in order to cast a light on future threats. Wedraw a critical distinction between risk andvulnerability. Climate risk is an external fact oflife for the entire world. Vulnerability is somethingvery different. It describes an inabilityto manage risk without being forced to makechoices that compromise human well-beingover time. Climate change will strengthen thetransmission mechanisms that convert risk intovulnerability, militating against the efforts ofthe poor to advance human development.The first section of this chapter sets outthe evidence on a range of climate impacts.It examines the distribution of exposure toclimate disasters and the long-run consequencesof these disasters on human development. Inthe second section we use climate scenariosdeveloped by the IPCC and others toexamine the mechanisms through which theincremental risks generated by climate changemight impact on human development duringthe 21 st Century.2.1 Climate shocks and low human development trapsClimate disasters have been a recurrent themein human history. Plato’s Atlantis myth capturesthe destructive power of floods. The collapse ofthe Mayan civilization was triggered by a successionof droughts. The 21 st Century has alreadyprovided some potent reminders of the frailty ofpeople in the face of extreme climate.Climate disasters are increasing in frequencyand touching the lives of more people. Theimmediate consequences are horrific. Butclimate shocks are also reinforcing widerrisks and vulnerabilities, leading to long-termsetbacks for human development.Climate disasters—the rising trendSome 262 million people were affected annuallyfrom 2000 to 2004, more than double the levelin the first half of the 1980s (figure 2.1). 7Rich countries have registered a mountingroll-call of climate disasters. During 2003,Europe was hit by the most intense heat wavein more than 50 years—an event that causedthousands of deaths among the elderly and othervulnerable people. A year later, Japan was hit byFigure 2.1Climate disasters areaffecting more peoplePeople affected by hydrometeorological disaster(millions per year)Developing countriesHigh-income OECD, Central and Eastern Europe, and the CISClimate risk is an externalfact of life for the entireworld. Vulnerability issomething very different2Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal worldExtreme climate events are a source of mountingconcern across the world. In recent decades, thenumber of people affected by climate disasterssuch as droughts, floods and storms has beenrising. Almost every disaster is accompaniedby speculation about possible links to climatechange. As climate science develops it willprovide clearer insights into the relationshipbetween global warming and weather systemoutcomes. However, current evidence pointsvery clearly in one direction: namely, thatclimate change will increase the risk of exposureto climate disaster.Reported climate disasters are on a risingtrend. Between 2000 and 2004 an average of326 climate disasters was reported each year.2502001501005001975–79 1980–84 1985–89 1990–94 1995–99 2000–04Source: HDRO calculations based on OFDA and CRED 2007.HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 75