The 21st Century climate challenge

Table 3.1Emission reduction targets vary in ambition3Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigationGreenhouse gas reduction targetsand proposalsNear term(2012–2015)Medium term(2020)Long term(2050)HDR sustainable emissionspathway (for developed countries) Emissions peaking 30% at least 80%Selected countriesKyoto targets a(2008–2012) Post-KyotoEuropean Union b 8% 20% (individually) or30% (with international agreement)France 0% – 75%Germany 21% 40% –Italy 6.5% – –Sweden4% increase(4% reduction national target)(by 2010)25% –60–80% (with internationalagreements)United Kingdom 12.5% (20% national target) 26–32% 60%Australia c 8% increase – –Canada 6% 20% relative to 2006 60–70% relative to 2006Japan 6% – 50%Norway1% increase30% (by 2030) 100%(10% reduction national target)United States c 7% – –Selected United States state-level proposalsArizona – 2000 levels 50% below 2000 (by 2040)California 2000 levels (by 2010) 1990 levels 80% below 1990 levelsNew Mexico 2000 levels (by 2012) 10% below 2000 levels 75% below 2000 levelsNew York 5% below 1990 (by 2010) 10% below 1990 levels –Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative(RGGI) dStabilization at 2002–2004 levels(by 2015)10% below 2002–2004 levels(by 2019)Selected United States Congress proposalsClimate Stewardship and Innovation Act 2004 levels (by 2012) 1990 levels 60% below 1990 levelsGlobal Warming Pollution Reduction Act – 2% per year reduction80% below 1990 levelsfrom 2010–2020Climate Stewardship Act 2006 level (by 2012) 1990 levels 70% below 1990 levelsSafe Climate Act of 2007 2009 level (by 2010) 2% per year reduction from2011–202080% below 1990 levelsUnited States non-governmental proposalsUnited States Climate Action Partnership 0–5% increase of current level(by 2012)0–10% below “current level”(by 2017)–60–80% below “current level”a. Kyoto reduction targets are generally against 1990 emission levels for each country, by 2008–2012, except that for some greenhouse gases (hydrofl uorocarbons,perfl uorocarbons and sulphur hexafl uoride) some countries chose 1995 as their base year.b. Kyoto targets only refer to 15 countries which were members of the European Union in 1997 at the time of signing.c. Signed but did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, therefore commitment is not binding.d. Participating states include Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.Source: Council of the European Union 2007; Government of Australia 2007; Government of Canada 2007; Government of France 2007; Government of Germany 2007;Government of Norway 2007; Government of Sweden 2006; Pew Center on Climate Change 2007c; RGGI 2005; State of California 2005; The Japan Times 2007; UNFCCC1998; USCAP 2007.under preparation would establish a statutoryobligation on Government to achievereductions of 26–32 percent by 2020, and60 percent by 2050. 1France has a national target of a 75 percentcut in emissions by 2050. 2 • In 2005, Germany updated its NationalClimate Change Programme to include thetarget of a 40 percent reduction by 2020(subject to the European Union subscribingto a 30 percent reduction). 3 In August2007, the German Federal Government•114 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008