The 21st Century climate challenge

4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationWithout improved access toinformation, governmentsand people across thedeveloping world will bedenied opportunities todevelop effective climateadaptation strategiesaccess to secondary and tertiary education,the human capital for these activities is oftenlacking. Evidence for this can be seen in thedistribution of published international research.Whereas Europe and North America accountfor over two-thirds of all papers published intwo major climate journals, Africa accounts forjust 4 percent. 24Financing constraints widen the disparitiesin access to information. Developed countriesare able to invest far more heavily than poorercountries in meteorological data collectionand analysis, providing climate-sensitive sectorswith a steady flow of information. Farmers inFrance, to take one example, benefit from ameteorological network that invests US$388million annually in climate monitoringand analysis, using some of the world’smost sophisticated forecasting systems. 25By contrast, in Ethiopia, where over 90percent of people depend on agriculture fortheir livelihoods, the national meteorologicalbudget for 2005 was around US$2 million. Bysub-Saharan African standards, Ethiopia iswell endowed: in Malawi, the meteorologicalbudget for 2005 was less than US$1 million. 26Indeed, the French meteorological budgetexceeds expenditure on climate monitoring andanalysis for the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. 27Capacity for monitoring and forecastingclimate can have an important bearing onlivelihood security. For agricultural producers,advance warning of abrupt changes in rainfallpatterns or temperature can mean the differencebetween a successful harvest and crop failure.Seasonal forecasting systems and effective disseminationof the information they generatecan enable farmers to monitor potential hazardsand respond by adjusting planting decisions orchanging the mix of crops.One successful example comes from Mali.Here the national meteorological service—theDirection Nationale de la Météorologie(DNM)—has developed a programme fortransmitting rainfall and soil moisture informationthrough a network of representativefarmers’ organizations, NGOs and localgovernments. Information is collected fromdiverse sources, including the WMO, regionalmonitoring systems and a national networkof simple rain gauges. Throughout the growingseason, farmers receive regular bulletins,enabling them to adjust production practices.Evaluation of results in the 2003–2004 croppingseason show that crop yields and incomeswere higher in areas where agro-meteorologicalinformation was used, notably for maize. 28The Mali experience demonstrates that lowincome does not have to be a barrier to successfulaction. In this case, government, farmers and climatologistshave worked together to generate anddisseminate information in a way that empowersvulnerable producers, reducing the risks anduncertainties associated with erratic rainfall. Inother countries, information is less available, andwhat is available is often unequally distributed,or presented in ways that are not useful tofarmers or other users. All too often, large-scalecommercial growers have access to good-qualitymeteorological information while smallholdersin the marginal areas facing the greatest climaterisks are in ‘information-free’ zones.Building meteorological monitoringcapacity will require international cooperation.Many developing countries lack both thefinancial and technological capabilities toscale up monitoring activities. Yet withoutimproved access to information, governmentsand people across the developing world willbe denied opportunities to develop effectiveclimate adaptation strategies.There have been some encouragingdevelopments. At their summit in Gleneagles in2005, G8 leaders recognized the importanceof building capacity to monitor climate.They pledged to strengthen existing climateinstitutions in Africa and to help the regionobtain the benefits of cooperation through theGlobal Climate Observation System (GCOS)with “a view to developing fully operationalregional climate centres in Africa”. 29The Government of Finland has activelysupported the development of meteorologicalinfrastructure in eastern Africa. In theUnited Kingdom, the Meteorological Office’sHadley Centre has developed a low-cost,high-resolution climate monitoring model thathas been made freely available, together with174 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008