The 21st Century climate challenge

started to fall, although the absolute numberof poor has not declined. 5The bad news is that forces generated byclimate change will be superimposed on aworld marked by deep and pervasive humandevelopment deficits, and by disparities thatdivide the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’. Whileglobalization has created unprecedented opportunitiesfor some, others have been left behind.In some countries—India is an example—rapid economic growth has produced modestprogress in poverty reduction and in nutrition.In others—including most of sub-SaharanAfrica—economic growth is too slow anduneven to sustain rapid progress in povertyreduction. Despite high growth across muchof Asia, on current trends most countries areoff track for achieving the MDG targets forreducing extreme poverty and deprivation inother areas by 2015.The state of human development is presentedin more detail elsewhere in this Report. What isimportant in the context of climate change isthat emerging risks will fall disproportionally oncountries already characterized by high levels ofpoverty and vulnerability:• Income poverty. There are still around1 billion people living at the margins ofsurvival on less than US$1 a day, with2.6 billion—40 percent of the world’spopulation—living on less than US$2 a day.Outside East Asia, most developing regionsare reducing poverty at a slow pace—tooslowly to achieve the MDG target of halvingextreme poverty by 2015. Unless there is anacceleration of poverty reduction from 2008onwards, the target looks likely to be missedby around 380 million people. 6• Nutrition. Around 28 percent of all childrenin developing countries are estimatedto be underweight or stunted. The tworegions that account for the bulk of the deficitare South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa—and both are off track in terms of achievingthe MDG target of halving under-nutritionby 2015. If India’s high economic growthis unequivocal good news, the bad news isthat this has not been translated into acceleratedprogress in cutting under-nutrition.One-half of all rural children are underweightfor their age—roughly the sameproportion as in 1992. 7• Child mortality. Progress on child mortalitylags behind progress in other areas. Around10 million children die each year before theage of 5, the vast majority from poverty andmalnutrition. Only around 32 countries outof 147 monitored by the World Bank are ontrack to achieve the MDG of a two-thirdsreduction in child mortality by 2015. 8 SouthAsia and sub-Saharan Africa are comprehensivelyoff track. On current trends theMDG target will be missed by a marginthat will represent 4.4 million additionaldeaths in 2015. 9• Health. Infectious diseases continue toblight the lives of the poor across the world.An estimated 40 million people are livingwith HIV/AIDS, with 3 million deaths in2004. Every year there are 350–500 millioncases of malaria, with 1 million fatalities:Africa accounts for 90 percent of malarialdeaths and African children account for over80 percent of malaria victims worldwide. 10These deficits in human development drawattention to deep inequalities across the world.The 40 percent of the world’s population livingon less than US$2 a day accounts for 5 percent ofglobal income. The richest 20 percent accountsfor three-quarters of world income. In the case ofsub-Saharan Africa, a whole region has been leftbehind: it will account for almost one-third ofworld poverty in 2015, up from one-fifth in 1990.Income inequality is also rising withincountries. Income distribution influencesthe rate at which economic growth translatesinto poverty reduction. More than 80 percentof the world’s population lives in countrieswhere income differentials are widening. Oneconsequence is that more growth is neededto achieve an equivalent poverty reductionoutcome. According to one analysis, developingcountries have to grow at over three times thepre-1990 rate to achieve the same reduction inpoverty incidence. 11Skewed income distribution intersects withwider inequalities. Child death rates amongthe poorest one-fifth in the developing worldWhile globalization hascreated unprecedentedopportunities for some,others have been leftbehind1The 21 st Century climate challengeHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 25